Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (55%) · Down at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up32¢Down68¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$7.8

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 68.5¢

+37% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up32%

Down69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$590.86

Total Shares660

Combined PnL+$5.86

Up5 traders

Total Value$39

Total Shares82

Combined PnL+$1.94

Down — 55%Up — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$1.02	61% 473-305 (778)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$733.54	$902.25	+$170.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$732.86	$564.3	-$171.22
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$750	$738.15	+$1	52% 3418-3216 (6634)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$367.5	$503.48	+$138.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$372.5	$234.68	-$137.58
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$155.5	$168.61	+$13.12	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$95.17	$112.34	+$17.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.8¢	$60.33	$56.27	-$4.05
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$45.59	$46.53	+$0.94	51% 1914-1874 (3788)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$20.95	$24.95	+$4	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 40.4¢	$14.53	$15.3	+$0.77	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$12.38	$11.8	-$0.58	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 66¢	$9.9	$9.53	-$0.37	54% 2350-2009 (4359)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$6.95	$8.15	+$1.2	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 56¢	$3.9	$5	+$1.1	52% 2695-2461 (5156)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$4.65	$4.85	+$0.2	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.93	+$0.28	38% 1439-2312 (3751)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$8.35	$1.83	+$0.28	63% 4035-2416 (6451)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$1.02

Record

61%

473-305 (778)

Both legs:

Down$733.5450¢+$170.2

Up$732.8650¢-$171.22

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$750

Value

$738.15

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

3418-3216 (6634)

Both legs:

Down$367.550¢+$138.58

Up$372.550¢-$137.58

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.5

Value

$168.61

PnL

+$13.12

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

Both legs:

Down$95.1758¢+$17.17

Up$60.3333.8¢-$4.05

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$45.59

Value

$46.53

PnL

+$0.94

Record

51%

1914-1874 (3788)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$20.95

Value

$24.95

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$14.53

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$0.77

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$12.38

Value

$11.8

PnL

-$0.58

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.53

PnL

-$0.37

Record

54%

2350-2009 (4359)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$6.95

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$3.9

Value

PnL

+$1.1

Record

52%

2695-2461 (5156)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.2

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.28

Record

38%

1439-2312 (3751)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$8.35

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.28

Record

63%

4035-2416 (6451)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.