Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Up (56%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$2.68

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 100¢

+83% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,665

Combined PnL-$1.93

Down8 traders

Total Value$58.95

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$0.76

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$1.65	61% 473-305 (778)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$750	$746.24	+$1.44	52% 3418-3216 (6634)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$375	$558.75	+$183.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$367.63	$187.49	-$182.31
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500.54	$500.56	+$0.02	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$317.5	+$67.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250.54	$183.06	-$67.48
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 99¢	$131.56	$124.97	-$0.65	38% 1439-2312 (3751)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 44.1¢	$25.58	$28.71	+$3.13	48% 1266-1353 (2619)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$24.88	$21.17	-$3.71	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 73¢	$18.6	$18.67	+$0.07	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 97¢	$7.76	$8	+$0.24	67% 3426-1692 (5118)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Upavg 51¢	$7.97	$7.89	-$0.08	38% 650-1068 (1718)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 85¢	$8.58	$7.29	-$1.29	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 76¢	$3.8	$4.58	+$0.78	63% 4035-2416 (6451)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$4.29	$4.29	+$0	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 76¢	$3.94	$3.86	-$0.08	47% 1495-1717 (3212)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 94.8¢	$18.95	$3	+$0.88	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 6.4¢	$2.06	$2.08	+$0.02	52% 2695-2461 (5156)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 54¢	$2.16	$2.02	-$0.14	54% 2350-2009 (4359)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$1.95	$2	+$0.05	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 13¢	$0.78	$0.51	-$0.27	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 11¢	$0.12	$0.13	+$0.01	33% 1045-2151 (3196)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 0.2¢	$0.05	$0.07	+$0.02	51% 3203-3131 (6334)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$1.65

Record

61%

473-305 (778)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$750

Value

$746.24

PnL

+$1.44

Record

52%

3418-3216 (6634)

Both legs:

Up$37550¢+$183.75

Down$367.6350¢-$182.31

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500.54

Value

$500.56

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$67.5

Down$250.5450¢-$67.48

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$131.56

Value

$124.97

PnL

-$0.65

Record

38%

1439-2312 (3751)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.58

Value

$28.71

PnL

+$3.13

Record

48%

1266-1353 (2619)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.88

Value

$21.17

PnL

-$3.71

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$18.67

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$7.76

Value

PnL

+$0.24

Record

67%

3426-1692 (5118)

flippingsharks<$100

Invested

$7.97

Value

$7.89

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

650-1068 (1718)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$8.58

Value

$7.29

PnL

-$1.29

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$0.78

Record

63%

4035-2416 (6451)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.29

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.86

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

1495-1717 (3212)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$18.95

Value

PnL

+$0.88

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

2695-2461 (5156)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$0.14

Record

54%

2350-2009 (4359)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.27

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.01

Record

33%

1045-2151 (3196)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.