Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 50%
5 arb excluded
$3.4K
-$433.5
Smart Money Signal
11 of 22 top traders (50%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$4 | 61% 473-305 (778) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $673.82 | — | -$649.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $670.98 | $1.3K | +$653.82 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $519.63 | $499.99 | +$0.44 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.8¢ | $254.18 | — | -$251.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $246.8 | $499.99 | +$251.99 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $234.14 | $223.42 | -$10.72 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.4¢ | $45.58 | $223.42 | +$177.84 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83.9¢ | $188.57 | — | -$188.57 | |
LI Little-big | Upavg 32.3¢ | $64.58 | $200 | +$135.42 | 51% 976-932 (1908) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 33.6¢ | $133.17 | $236.68 | +$103.51 | 54% 2350-2009 (4359) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.6¢ | $79.45 | $236.68 | +$157.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.7¢ | $53.72 | — | -$53.72 | |
 ohioism | Upavg 19.9¢ | $55.5 | $185.98 | +$147.49 | 47% 2089-2333 (4422) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 1¢ | $1.31 | $131 | +$129.69 | 38% 1439-2312 (3751) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $126.26 | $77.4 | +$4.51 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $38.7 | $77.4 | +$38.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.4¢ | $36.34 | — | -$34.19 | |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 64.3¢ | $133.91 | — | -$125.87 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $61.74 | $76.22 | +$14.48 | 50% 2427-2459 (4886) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $59.37 | $61.85 | +$9.71 | 47% 1495-1717 (3212) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 61.4¢ | $55.19 | $55.27 | +$0.08 | 67% 3426-1692 (5118) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $61.8 | — | -$61.8 | 44% 2099-2693 (4792) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $47.92 | — | -$47.92 | 48% 2150-2369 (4519) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $33.33 | — | -$33.33 | 59% 3720-2542 (6262) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 58.1¢ | $30.35 | $30.54 | +$0.19 | 65% 2432-1333 (3765) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 89.9¢ | $25.77 | — | -$25.77 | 52% 2695-2461 (5156) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $16.06 | — | -$16.06 | 38% 650-1068 (1718) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 23.2¢ | $13.9 | $60 | +$46.1 | 47% 2188-2425 (4613) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 17.8¢ | $12.6 | — | -$12.6 | 37% 1362-2297 (3659) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 33.6¢ | $43.33 | $21.74 | +$18.46 | 63% 4035-2416 (6451) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 1.5¢ | $2.04 | $138.09 | +$136.05 | 33% 1045-2151 (3196) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 22.2¢ | $5.55 | $25 | +$19.45 | 71% 1607-666 (2273) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $3.24 | — | -$3.24 | 42% 1702-2303 (4005) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 51.8¢ | $284 | — | -$284 | 49% 2276-2326 (4602) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$4
Record
61%
473-305 (778)
Both legs:
Invested
$519.63
Value
$499.99
PnL
+$0.44
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Both legs:
Invested
$234.14
Value
$223.42
PnL
-$10.72
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.58
Value
$200
PnL
+$135.42
Record
51%
976-932 (1908)
Invested
$133.17
Value
$236.68
PnL
+$103.51
Record
54%
2350-2009 (4359)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$55.5
Value
$185.98
PnL
+$147.49
Record
47%
2089-2333 (4422)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$1.31
Value
$131
PnL
+$129.69
Record
38%
1439-2312 (3751)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$126.26
Value
$77.4
PnL
+$4.51
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
Both legs:
Invested
$133.91
Value
—
PnL
-$125.87
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
Invested
$61.74
Value
$76.22
PnL
+$14.48
Record
50%
2427-2459 (4886)
Invested
$59.37
Value
$61.85
PnL
+$9.71
Record
47%
1495-1717 (3212)
Invested
$55.19
Value
$55.27
PnL
+$0.08
Record
67%
3426-1692 (5118)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$61.8
Value
—
PnL
-$61.8
Record
44%
2099-2693 (4792)
Invested
$47.92
Value
—
PnL
-$47.92
Record
48%
2150-2369 (4519)
Invested
$33.33
Value
—
PnL
-$33.33
Record
59%
3720-2542 (6262)
Invested
$30.35
Value
$30.54
PnL
+$0.19
Record
65%
2432-1333 (3765)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$25.77
Value
—
PnL
-$25.77
Record
52%
2695-2461 (5156)
Invested
$16.06
Value
—
PnL
-$16.06
Record
38%
650-1068 (1718)
Invested
$13.9
Value
$60
PnL
+$46.1
Record
47%
2188-2425 (4613)
Invested
$12.6
Value
—
PnL
-$12.6
Record
37%
1362-2297 (3659)
Invested
$43.33
Value
$21.74
PnL
+$18.46
Record
63%
4035-2416 (6451)
pspspsps5Invested
$2.04
Value
$138.09
PnL
+$136.05
Record
33%
1045-2151 (3196)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$5.55
Value
$25
PnL
+$19.45
Record
71%
1607-666 (2273)
Invested
$3.24
Value
—
PnL
-$3.24
Record
42%
1702-2303 (4005)
Invested
$284
Value
—
PnL
-$284
Record
49%
2276-2326 (4602)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Little-big
Up — $200
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ohioism
Up — $185.98
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $131
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
dvasdkasodk
Up — $76.22