Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Down 64%
3 arb excluded
$5.3K
$457.42
Smart Money Signal
18 of 28 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$1.72 | 61% 473-305 (778) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $704.08 | $1.4K | +$715.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $701.41 | — | -$713.94 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 56.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$310.84 | 49% 2276-2326 (4602) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $642.85 | -$8.39 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $321.43 | $642.85 | +$326.36 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $310 | — | -$334.75 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $520.96 | $500 | +$7.4 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.3¢ | $426.02 | $433.26 | +$7.24 | 98% 3774-79 (3853) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 72.1¢ | $250.68 | $250 | -$0.68 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 54.3¢ | $244.7 | $198.64 | -$46.06 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.5¢ | $108.16 | $198.64 | +$90.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.3¢ | $136.54 | — | -$136.54 | |
AL almach | Downavg 76¢ | $114 | $150 | +$36 | 51% 1428-1364 (2792) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $59.33 | $103.77 | +$44.44 | 48% 1266-1353 (2619) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 76¢ | $92.63 | $121.88 | +$29.25 | 51% 1417-1386 (2803) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 66.1¢ | $69.82 | $78.64 | +$8.83 | 54% 2350-2009 (4359) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 61.2¢ | $61.78 | $75.54 | +$13.76 | 48% 2150-2369 (4519) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $56.15 | $68.24 | +$12.09 | 47% 2188-2425 (4613) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 52.3¢ | $49.02 | $79 | +$29.98 | 47% 2089-2333 (4422) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $26.15 | $35.34 | +$9.19 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.2¢ | $19.85 | $25.34 | +$5.49 | 67% 3426-1692 (5118) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.6¢ | $18.05 | — | -$18.05 | 44% 2099-2693 (4792) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $13.3 | $20 | +$6.7 | 51% 1914-1874 (3788) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $13.02 | $18.6 | +$5.58 | 33% 1045-2151 (3196) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.6¢ | $6.13 | — | -$6.13 | 38% 650-1068 (1718) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $6.92 | $6 | -$0.92 | 65% 2432-1333 (3765) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.6¢ | $8.93 | — | -$8.93 | 58% 5007-3677 (8684) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 50% 2427-2459 (4886) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 71.3¢ | $14.55 | $10.11 | +$1.99 | 63% 4035-2416 (6451) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 43.5¢ | $5.22 | — | -$5.22 | 42% 1702-2303 (4005) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$1.72
Record
61%
473-305 (778)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,080.9
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$310.84
Record
49%
2276-2326 (4602)
Invested
$750
Value
$642.85
PnL
-$8.39
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
Both legs:
Invested
$520.96
Value
$500
PnL
+$7.4
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Invested
$426.02
Value
$433.26
PnL
+$7.24
Record
98%
3774-79 (3853)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$250.68
Value
$250
PnL
-$0.68
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
Invested
$244.7
Value
$198.64
PnL
-$46.06
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
Both legs:
Invested
$114
Value
$150
PnL
+$36
Record
51%
1428-1364 (2792)
Invested
$59.33
Value
$103.77
PnL
+$44.44
Record
48%
1266-1353 (2619)
Invested
$92.63
Value
$121.88
PnL
+$29.25
Record
51%
1417-1386 (2803)
Invested
$69.82
Value
$78.64
PnL
+$8.83
Record
54%
2350-2009 (4359)
Invested
$61.78
Value
$75.54
PnL
+$13.76
Record
48%
2150-2369 (4519)
Invested
$56.15
Value
$68.24
PnL
+$12.09
Record
47%
2188-2425 (4613)
ohioism<$100Invested
$49.02
Value
$79
PnL
+$29.98
Record
47%
2089-2333 (4422)
Invested
$26.15
Value
$35.34
PnL
+$9.19
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
Invested
$19.85
Value
$25.34
PnL
+$5.49
Record
67%
3426-1692 (5118)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$18.05
Value
—
PnL
-$18.05
Record
44%
2099-2693 (4792)
Invested
$13.3
Value
$20
PnL
+$6.7
Record
51%
1914-1874 (3788)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$13.02
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$5.58
Record
33%
1045-2151 (3196)
Invested
$6.13
Value
—
PnL
-$6.13
Record
38%
650-1068 (1718)
Invested
$6.92
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.92
Record
65%
2432-1333 (3765)
Invested
$8.93
Value
—
PnL
-$8.93
Record
58%
5007-3677 (8684)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
50%
2427-2459 (4886)
Invested
$14.55
Value
$10.11
PnL
+$1.99
Record
63%
4035-2416 (6451)
Invested
$5.22
Value
—
PnL
-$5.22
Record
42%
1702-2303 (4005)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
hoodquant
Down — $433.26
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $250
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Down — $150
PBot-5
Down — $103.77
mo-money
Down — $121.88