Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 48%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$466.8

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 25 top traders (48%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,557

Combined PnL+$295.84

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,387

Combined PnL-$762.63

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$708.21	+$31.63	61% 473-305 (778)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$354.1	$708.21	+$433.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$381.68	—	-$402.04
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 49.5¢	$474.69	$546.9	+$114.27	49% 2276-2326 (4602)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$595.88	$493.57	+$20.57	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$244.6	$493.57	+$264.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.1¢	$242.86	—	-$243.85
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 67.8¢	$234.36	$259	+$32.85	58% 5007-3677 (8684)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$207.97	$236.47	+$28.5	54% 2350-2009 (4359)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$117.31	$236.47	+$119.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.5¢	$90.66	—	-$90.66
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 59.4¢	$260.34	$230.88	-$29.47	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.7¢	$128.64	$230.88	+$102.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.4¢	$131.7	—	-$131.7
PB PBot-5	Downavg 60.6¢	$116.5	$192.1	+$75.61	48% 1266-1353 (2619)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 49.7¢	$166.87	—	-$161.39	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 49.1¢	$151.74	$177.82	+$26.08	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 54¢	$166.77	$160.72	-$6.05	47% 1495-1717 (3212)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$82.79	$160.72	+$77.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$83.98	—	-$83.98
SO soswald1	Downavg 60.8¢	$158.31	$137.9	-$15.89	52% 3418-3216 (6634)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 36.7¢	$73.39	—	-$73.39	51% 976-932 (1908)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 56.1¢	$47.34	$47.65	+$0.31	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 47.7¢	$77.17	—	-$72.97	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$48.65	$47.98	+$1.93	50% 2427-2459 (4886)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 32¢	$14.5	$45.31	+$30.81	71% 1607-666 (2273)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 64.9¢	$31.18	$36.85	+$8.96	38% 1439-2312 (3751)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$22.38	$34.62	+$13.73	37% 1362-2297 (3659)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$59.69	—	-$58.31	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$45.79	—	-$9.69	59% 3720-2542 (6262)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$19.57	$27	+$7.43	59% 1023-702 (1725)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 41.7¢	$11.56	—	-$11.56	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$9.4	—	-$9.4	47% 176-201 (377)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$10.37	—	-$10.37	38% 650-1068 (1718)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 76¢	$4.18	$3.94	-$0.24	65% 2432-1333 (3765)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$708.21

PnL

+$31.63

Record

61%

473-305 (778)

Both legs:

Down$354.150¢+$433.67

Up$381.6850¢-$402.04

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$474.69

Value

$546.9

PnL

+$114.27

Record

49%

2276-2326 (4602)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$595.88

Value

$493.57

PnL

+$20.57

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Down$244.649.6¢+$264.42

Up$242.8648.1¢-$243.85

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$234.36

Value

$259

PnL

+$32.85

Record

58%

5007-3677 (8684)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.97

Value

$236.47

PnL

+$28.5

Record

54%

2350-2009 (4359)

Both legs:

Down$117.3149.6¢+$119.16

Up$90.6635.5¢-$90.66

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$260.34

Value

$230.88

PnL

-$29.47

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

Both legs:

Down$128.6455.7¢+$102.24

Up$131.759.4¢-$131.7

PBot-5

Down

Invested

$116.5

Value

$192.1

PnL

+$75.61

Record

48%

1266-1353 (2619)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$166.87

Value

—

PnL

-$161.39

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$151.74

Value

$177.82

PnL

+$26.08

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$166.77

Value

$160.72

PnL

-$6.05

Record

47%

1495-1717 (3212)

Both legs:

Down$82.7951.5¢+$77.93

Up$83.9854¢-$83.98

soswald1

Down

Invested

$158.31

Value

$137.9

PnL

-$15.89

Record

52%

3418-3216 (6634)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$73.39

Value

—

PnL

-$73.39

Record

51%

976-932 (1908)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$47.34

Value

$47.65

PnL

+$0.31

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$77.17

Value

—

PnL

-$72.97

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$48.65

Value

$47.98

PnL

+$1.93

Record

50%

2427-2459 (4886)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$14.5

Value

$45.31

PnL

+$30.81

Record

71%

1607-666 (2273)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$31.18

Value

$36.85

PnL

+$8.96

Record

38%

1439-2312 (3751)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$22.38

Value

$34.62

PnL

+$13.73

Record

37%

1362-2297 (3659)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$59.69

Value

—

PnL

-$58.31

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$45.79

Value

—

PnL

-$9.69

Record

59%

3720-2542 (6262)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$19.57

Value

$27

PnL

+$7.43

Record

59%

1023-702 (1725)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$11.56

Value

—

PnL

-$11.56

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

—

PnL

-$9.4

Record

47%

176-201 (377)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$10.37

Value

—

PnL

-$10.37

Record

38%

650-1068 (1718)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$4.18

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$0.24

Record

65%

2432-1333 (3765)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 25 top traders (48%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x6d3feed1...cd1a39

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794689700

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$31.63

uninformedfloww

Down — $546.9

+$114.27

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$20.57

Hcrystallash

Down — $259

+$32.85

ply-pm2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$28.5

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$29.47

PBot-5

Down — $192.1

+$75.61

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Up — $0

-$161.39

asdcaxz

Down — $177.82

rabadabadoo

Arbitrage — excluded