Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 12 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

12 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Down (52%) · Down at 0.5¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$109.99

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 23 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,244

Combined PnL-$182.74

Up11 traders

Total Value$647.84

Total Shares665

Combined PnL+$72.75

Down — 52%Up — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$3.96	61% 466-302 (768)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$507.05	$495.5	-$0.5	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$355.25	+$110.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$252.11	$140.25	-$111.15
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$391.22	$390.33	-$0.89	98% 3730-79 (3809)
wowitsamazing<$100	Upavg 48.3¢	$49.65	$98.17	+$48.52	47% 176-199 (375)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 61.9¢	$77.43	$92.59	+$20.92	50% 4423-4495 (8918)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 67.4¢	$22.86	$24.66	+$1.8	51% 3392-3202 (6594)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 45.6¢	$210.9	$20.83	-$190.07	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$15.75	$17.33	+$1.57	48% 1258-1344 (2602)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$16.1	$16.97	+$0.87	44% 2080-2676 (4756)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 25.6¢	$13.66	$15.82	+$2.17	54% 2335-1997 (4332)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 91¢	$14.45	$13.74	-$0.71	59% 3698-2531 (6229)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 97.1¢	$16.8	$9.94	-$0.68	63% 4009-2399 (6408)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$10.8	$9.9	-$0.9	48% 2136-2349 (4485)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$6.79	$6.31	-$0.49	47% 2079-2312 (4391)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Upavg 50¢	$3.17	$5.79	+$2.62	38% 641-1057 (1698)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 50¢	$3.52	$5.09	+$1.57	47% 1485-1706 (3191)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 26.7¢	$3.03	$3.68	+$0.65	50% 1907-1871 (3778)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 80¢	$4	$3.63	-$0.38	52% 2682-2447 (5129)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.43	+$0.22	48% 2176-2405 (4581)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1.3¢	$1.99	$2.33	+$0.34	33% 1042-2138 (3180)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 51¢	$2.08	$2.06	-$0.02	50% 812-804 (1616)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 41¢	$1.86	$1.86	+$0	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 2.7¢	$1.77	$0.97	-$0.8	38% 1429-2293 (3722)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$1.08	$0.81	-$0.27	42% 1686-2284 (3970)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$3.96

Record

61%

466-302 (768)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$507.05

Value

$495.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Up$24550¢+$110.65

Down$252.1149.4¢-$111.15

hoodquant

Invested

$391.22

Value

$390.33

PnL

-$0.89

Record

98%

3730-79 (3809)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

$49.65

Value

$98.17

PnL

+$48.52

Record

47%

176-199 (375)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$77.43

Value

$92.59

PnL

+$20.92

Record

50%

4423-4495 (8918)

soswald1<$100

Invested

$22.86

Value

$24.66

PnL

+$1.8

Record

51%

3392-3202 (6594)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$210.9

Value

$20.83

PnL

-$190.07

Record

50%

2267-2294 (4561)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.75

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$1.57

Record

48%

1258-1344 (2602)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.1

Value

$16.97

PnL

+$0.87

Record

44%

2080-2676 (4756)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.66

Value

$15.82

PnL

+$2.17

Record

54%

2335-1997 (4332)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$14.45

Value

$13.74

PnL

-$0.71

Record

59%

3698-2531 (6229)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.68

Record

63%

4009-2399 (6408)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.8

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

2136-2349 (4485)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.79

Value

$6.31

PnL

-$0.49

Record

47%

2079-2312 (4391)

flippingsharks<$100

Invested

$3.17

Value

$5.79

PnL

+$2.62

Record

38%

641-1057 (1698)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$3.52

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$1.57

Record

47%

1485-1706 (3191)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.65

Record

50%

1907-1871 (3778)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$0.38

Record

52%

2682-2447 (5129)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.22

Record

48%

2176-2405 (4581)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.34

Record

33%

1042-2138 (3180)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

812-804 (1616)

suntori<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.86

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.77

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.8

Record

38%

1429-2293 (3722)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.27

Record

42%

1686-2284 (3970)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 23 top traders (52%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6136.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

6236.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.