Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 14 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

14 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Up (61%) · Up at 0.5¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 61%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$9.56

Smart Money Entry

35.4¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 23 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,380

Combined PnL-$39.73

Down9 traders

Total Value$780.76

Total Shares809

Combined PnL+$30.17

Up — 61%Down — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$2.55	61% 466-302 (768)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$582.28	$569.33	-$12.95	98% 3730-79 (3809)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$490	+$3.7	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 60.8¢	$111.26	$138.63	+$27.37	50% 4423-4495 (8918)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 38.1¢	$168.47	$118.3	-$50.18	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$91.32	$26.56	+$0.83	52% 2196-2051 (4247)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 2.1¢	$15.35	$25.07	+$9.72	42% 1686-2284 (3970)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 56¢	$11.2	$18.3	+$7.1	51% 3392-3202 (6594)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$14.67	$17	+$2.33	54% 2335-1997 (4332)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 83.8¢	$23.79	$15.15	+$3.48	63% 4009-2399 (6408)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$16.08	$12.6	-$3.48	71% 1595-654 (2249)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 97¢	$12.03	$11.97	-$0.06	59% 3698-2531 (6229)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 38.1¢	$11.47	$11.11	-$0.36	47% 1485-1706 (3191)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$9.55	$7.75	-$1.8	47% 2079-2312 (4391)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 30¢	$3.6	$5.94	+$2.34	58% 4999-3667 (8666)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.48	+$0.58	48% 2136-2349 (4485)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$1.98	$1.97	-$0.01	50% 2409-2440 (4849)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$2	$1.83	-$0.18	44% 2080-2676 (4756)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 1.4¢	$1.45	$1.5	+$0.05	38% 1429-2293 (3722)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$0.52	$0.91	+$0.39	33% 1042-2138 (3180)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 4.2¢	$1.77	$0.64	-$1.13	38% 641-1057 (1698)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.16	$0.24	+$0.08	52% 2682-2447 (5129)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.15	$0.22	+$0.07	37% 1353-2279 (3632)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$2.55

Record

61%

466-302 (768)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$582.28

Value

$569.33

PnL

-$12.95

Record

98%

3730-79 (3809)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$490

PnL

+$3.7

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$111.26

Value

$138.63

PnL

+$27.37

Record

50%

4423-4495 (8918)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$168.47

Value

$118.3

PnL

-$50.18

Record

50%

2267-2294 (4561)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$91.32

Value

$26.56

PnL

+$0.83

Record

52%

2196-2051 (4247)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$15.35

Value

$25.07

PnL

+$9.72

Record

42%

1686-2284 (3970)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$11.2

Value

$18.3

PnL

+$7.1

Record

51%

3392-3202 (6594)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$14.67

Value

$17

PnL

+$2.33

Record

54%

2335-1997 (4332)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$23.79

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$3.48

Record

63%

4009-2399 (6408)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$16.08

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$3.48

Record

71%

1595-654 (2249)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$12.03

Value

$11.97

PnL

-$0.06

Record

59%

3698-2531 (6229)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$11.47

Value

$11.11

PnL

-$0.36

Record

47%

1485-1706 (3191)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$9.55

Value

$7.75

PnL

-$1.8

Record

47%

2079-2312 (4391)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$3.6

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$2.34

Record

58%

4999-3667 (8666)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.58

Record

48%

2136-2349 (4485)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

2409-2440 (4849)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.18

Record

44%

2080-2676 (4756)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

1429-2293 (3722)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.39

Record

33%

1042-2138 (3180)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$1.77

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$1.13

Record

38%

641-1057 (1698)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

2682-2447 (5129)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.07

Record

37%

1353-2279 (3632)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 23 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6136.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

6236.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.