Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 48%
$1.6K
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 21 top traders (48%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 460-295 (755) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $715 | +$18.21 | 51% 3344-3190 (6534) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.6¢ | $500.56 | — | -$487.2 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.4¢ | $426.88 | $433.88 | +$7 | 98% 3678-79 (3757) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 69¢ | $181.65 | $209.41 | +$27.76 | 50% 4397-4477 (8874) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 61¢ | $115.92 | $119.69 | +$3.77 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $31.52 | $38.77 | +$7.25 | 54% 2316-1981 (4297) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.1¢ | $59.83 | — | -$28.55 | 52% 2184-2035 (4219) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.6¢ | $25.29 | — | -$25.29 | 44% 2059-2654 (4713) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 69.8¢ | $21.05 | $25 | +$3.95 | 52% 2655-2432 (5087) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $8.18 | $15.3 | +$7.11 | 38% 632-1052 (1684) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.4¢ | $11.2 | — | -$11.2 | 46% 2743-3256 (5999) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $10.56 | — | -$10.56 | 58% 4990-3651 (8641) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $4.17 | $6.33 | +$2.16 | 38% 1410-2275 (3685) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $5.73 | $6.85 | +$1.12 | 47% 1475-1689 (3164) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $5.71 | $6 | +$1.2 | 62% 3967-2385 (6352) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $3.48 | $6 | +$2.52 | 42% 1669-2262 (3931) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $5.1 | — | -$5.1 | 48% 2113-2329 (4442) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $1.76 | — | -$1.76 | 33% 1029-2125 (3154) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 31.7¢ | $173.77 | — | -$173.77 | 50% 2249-2257 (4506) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.3¢ | $10.77 | — | -$10.77 | 48% 2157-2382 (4539) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
460-295 (755)
Invested
$750
Value
$715
PnL
+$18.21
Record
51%
3344-3190 (6534)
Invested
$500.56
Value
—
PnL
-$487.2
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Invested
$426.88
Value
$433.88
PnL
+$7
Record
98%
3678-79 (3757)
Invested
$181.65
Value
$209.41
PnL
+$27.76
Record
50%
4397-4477 (8874)
Invested
$115.92
Value
$119.69
PnL
+$3.77
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
Invested
$31.52
Value
$38.77
PnL
+$7.25
Record
54%
2316-1981 (4297)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$59.83
Value
—
PnL
-$28.55
Record
52%
2184-2035 (4219)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$25.29
Value
—
PnL
-$25.29
Record
44%
2059-2654 (4713)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$21.05
Value
$25
PnL
+$3.95
Record
52%
2655-2432 (5087)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$15.3
PnL
+$7.11
Record
38%
632-1052 (1684)
Invested
$11.2
Value
—
PnL
-$11.2
Record
46%
2743-3256 (5999)
Invested
$10.56
Value
—
PnL
-$10.56
Record
58%
4990-3651 (8641)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.17
Value
$6.33
PnL
+$2.16
Record
38%
1410-2275 (3685)
Invested
$5.73
Value
$6.85
PnL
+$1.12
Record
47%
1475-1689 (3164)
Invested
$5.71
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.2
Record
62%
3967-2385 (6352)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.52
Record
42%
1669-2262 (3931)
Invested
$5.1
Value
—
PnL
-$5.1
Record
48%
2113-2329 (4442)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.76
Value
—
PnL
-$1.76
Record
33%
1029-2125 (3154)
Invested
$173.77
Value
—
PnL
-$173.77
Record
50%
2249-2257 (4506)
Invested
$10.77
Value
—
PnL
-$10.77
Record
48%
2157-2382 (4539)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $715
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $433.88
asdcaxz
Up — $209.41
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $119.69
ply-pm2
Up — $38.77
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
MayorMamdani
Up — $25