Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

15 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Down (52%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$200.22

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 99.5¢

+35% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 29 top traders (52%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,062

Combined PnL-$329.09

Down15 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,311

Combined PnL+$128.87

Up — 48%Down — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	+$0.16	61% 460-295 (755)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 95.9¢	$744.55	$772.36	+$27.82	98% 3678-79 (3757)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50.3¢	$537.54	$497.83	+$6.01	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 52.2¢	$410.89	$425.52	+$23.83	50% 4397-4477 (8874)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 56.9¢	$337.57	$332.78	-$4.8	51% 3138-3071 (6209)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 50.2¢	$122.8	$132.36	+$9.56	54% 2316-1981 (4297)
MO mo-money	Downavg 81¢	$121.49	$126.74	+$5.25	50% 1389-1374 (2763)
AL almach	Downavg 81¢	$121.49	$126.74	+$5.25	51% 1399-1354 (2753)
BO bosona	Downavg 81¢	$121.49	$126.74	+$5.25	51% 4643-4484 (9127)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 58.7¢	$104.72	$75.52	-$27.1	51% 3344-3190 (6534)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$33.68	$35.94	+$2.26	47% 1475-1689 (3164)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$27.44	$35.38	+$7.94	48% 2157-2382 (4539)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 38.7¢	$33.64	$33.72	+$49.58	52% 2184-2035 (4219)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 84.1¢	$32.48	$30.24	-$2.24	38% 1410-2275 (3685)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$28.3	$28.47	+$0.17	71% 1584-646 (2230)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$26.3	$27.95	+$1.65	47% 2060-2289 (4349)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 42.9¢	$22.5	$24.7	+$2.2	48% 2113-2329 (4442)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$17.8	$17.44	-$0.36	67% 3366-1674 (5040)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 66.1¢	$14.45	$17.04	+$2.59	50% 2392-2413 (4805)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 85¢	$18.62	$16.08	-$2.54	52% 2655-2432 (5087)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 41¢	$13.04	$12.29	+$2.25	59% 3675-2516 (6191)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 35.9¢	$6.13	$8.62	+$2.48	38% 632-1052 (1684)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$6.15	$7.58	+$1.42	51% 965-913 (1878)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$4.63	$7.04	+$2.41	64% 2389-1316 (3705)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 45.6¢	$20.89	$6.38	-$0.5	62% 3967-2385 (6352)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.16

Record

61%

460-295 (755)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$744.55

Value

$772.36

PnL

+$27.82

Record

98%

3678-79 (3757)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$537.54

Value

$497.83

PnL

+$6.01

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$410.89

Value

$425.52

PnL

+$23.83

Record

50%

4397-4477 (8874)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$337.57

Value

$332.78

PnL

-$4.8

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$122.8

Value

$132.36

PnL

+$9.56

Record

54%

2316-1981 (4297)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$121.49

Value

$126.74

PnL

+$5.25

Record

50%

1389-1374 (2763)

almach

Down

Invested

$121.49

Value

$126.74

PnL

+$5.25

Record

51%

1399-1354 (2753)

bosona

Down

Invested

$121.49

Value

$126.74

PnL

+$5.25

Record

51%

4643-4484 (9127)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$104.72

Value

$75.52

PnL

-$27.1

Record

51%

3344-3190 (6534)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$33.68

Value

$35.94

PnL

+$2.26

Record

47%

1475-1689 (3164)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$27.44

Value

$35.38

PnL

+$7.94

Record

48%

2157-2382 (4539)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$33.64

Value

$33.72

PnL

+$49.58

Record

52%

2184-2035 (4219)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$32.48

Value

$30.24

PnL

-$2.24

Record

38%

1410-2275 (3685)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$28.3

Value

$28.47

PnL

+$0.17

Record

71%

1584-646 (2230)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$26.3

Value

$27.95

PnL

+$1.65

Record

47%

2060-2289 (4349)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$24.7

PnL

+$2.2

Record

48%

2113-2329 (4442)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$17.8

Value

$17.44

PnL

-$0.36

Record

67%

3366-1674 (5040)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$14.45

Value

$17.04

PnL

+$2.59

Record

50%

2392-2413 (4805)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$18.62

Value

$16.08

PnL

-$2.54

Record

52%

2655-2432 (5087)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$13.04

Value

$12.29

PnL

+$2.25

Record

59%

3675-2516 (6191)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$6.13

Value

$8.62

PnL

+$2.48

Record

38%

632-1052 (1684)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$6.15

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$1.42

Record

51%

965-913 (1878)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$4.63

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$2.41

Record

64%

2389-1316 (3705)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$20.89

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$0.5

Record

62%

3967-2385 (6352)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 29 top traders (52%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.