Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 61%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$116.04
Smart Money Signal
14 of 23 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$7.91 | 61% 460-295 (755) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $510.98 | $490.01 | -$0.3 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $247.8 | $490.01 | +$246.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $248.1 | — | -$246.7 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 72.6¢ | $206.3 | $207.67 | +$3.4 | 50% 4397-4477 (8874) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $200.72 | $202.75 | +$2.03 | 98% 3678-79 (3757) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 76.9¢ | $109.18 | $96.4 | -$12.79 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $47.7 | $55 | +$9.96 | 44% 2059-2654 (4713) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 22.3¢ | $107.76 | — | -$75.47 | 50% 2249-2257 (4506) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $42.55 | $40.9 | -$1.66 | 54% 2316-1981 (4297) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $32.9 | $40.13 | +$8.3 | 51% 3344-3190 (6534) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 77.4¢ | $27.1 | $35 | +$7.9 | 52% 2655-2432 (5087) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $22.72 | $22.36 | -$0.36 | 47% 1475-1689 (3164) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $19.22 | $17.48 | -$1.74 | 67% 3366-1674 (5040) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 58.9¢ | $20.6 | $26 | +$5.4 | 58% 4990-3651 (8641) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $11.7 | — | -$11.7 | 48% 2157-2382 (4539) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $20 | +$4.8 | 59% 3675-2516 (6191) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.4¢ | $45.2 | — | -$10.35 | 52% 2184-2035 (4219) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 80.9¢ | $24.14 | $17 | +$2.18 | 62% 3967-2385 (6352) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $12.25 | $8.52 | -$3.73 | 38% 1410-2275 (3685) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 51% 965-913 (1878) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $7.55 | — | -$7.55 | 48% 2113-2329 (4442) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.8¢ | $2.47 | — | -$2.47 | 38% 632-1052 (1684) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.1¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | 50% 2392-2413 (4805) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.2¢ | $11.2 | — | -$11.2 | 46% 2743-3256 (5999) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.6¢ | $4.53 | — | -$4.53 | 47% 2060-2289 (4349) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$7.91
Record
61%
460-295 (755)
Invested
$510.98
Value
$490.01
PnL
-$0.3
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Both legs:
Invested
$206.3
Value
$207.67
PnL
+$3.4
Record
50%
4397-4477 (8874)
Invested
$200.72
Value
$202.75
PnL
+$2.03
Record
98%
3678-79 (3757)
Invested
$109.18
Value
$96.4
PnL
-$12.79
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$47.7
Value
$55
PnL
+$9.96
Record
44%
2059-2654 (4713)
Invested
$107.76
Value
—
PnL
-$75.47
Record
50%
2249-2257 (4506)
Invested
$42.55
Value
$40.9
PnL
-$1.66
Record
54%
2316-1981 (4297)
Invested
$32.9
Value
$40.13
PnL
+$8.3
Record
51%
3344-3190 (6534)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$27.1
Value
$35
PnL
+$7.9
Record
52%
2655-2432 (5087)
Invested
$22.72
Value
$22.36
PnL
-$0.36
Record
47%
1475-1689 (3164)
Invested
$19.22
Value
$17.48
PnL
-$1.74
Record
67%
3366-1674 (5040)
Invested
$20.6
Value
$26
PnL
+$5.4
Record
58%
4990-3651 (8641)
Invested
$11.7
Value
—
PnL
-$11.7
Record
48%
2157-2382 (4539)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.8
Record
59%
3675-2516 (6191)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$45.2
Value
—
PnL
-$10.35
Record
52%
2184-2035 (4219)
Invested
$24.14
Value
$17
PnL
+$2.18
Record
62%
3967-2385 (6352)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$12.25
Value
$8.52
PnL
-$3.73
Record
38%
1410-2275 (3685)
Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
51%
965-913 (1878)
Invested
$7.55
Value
—
PnL
-$7.55
Record
48%
2113-2329 (4442)
Invested
$2.47
Value
—
PnL
-$2.47
Record
38%
632-1052 (1684)
Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
50%
2392-2413 (4805)
Invested
$11.2
Value
—
PnL
-$11.2
Record
46%
2743-3256 (5999)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.53
Value
—
PnL
-$4.53
Record
47%
2060-2289 (4349)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.3K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $207.67
hoodquant
Down — $202.75
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $96.4
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $55
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $40.9
soswald1
Down — $40.13
MayorMamdani
Down — $35