Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Down 35%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$-2.2K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 20 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 460-295 (755) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $735 | +$22.62 | 51% 3344-3190 (6534) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$498.14 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $380.94 | $385 | +$4.06 | 98% 3678-79 (3757) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 39.9¢ | $299.66 | — | -$299.66 | 50% 2249-2257 (4506) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 68.2¢ | $110.87 | $92.86 | -$18.01 | 50% 4397-4477 (8874) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.2¢ | $63.36 | $92.86 | +$29.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30¢ | $47.51 | — | -$47.51 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 65.3¢ | $52.12 | $57.08 | +$4.96 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 78.9¢ | $83.06 | $42.24 | +$8.68 | 52% 2184-2035 (4219) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $21.76 | $36 | +$14.24 | 48% 2113-2329 (4442) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $36.5 | $54.83 | +$21.43 | 59% 3675-2516 (6191) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 80.3¢ | $22.47 | $26.25 | +$3.78 | 38% 1410-2275 (3685) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $33.8 | $21.2 | +$1.23 | 62% 3967-2385 (6352) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 74.7¢ | $18.19 | $20.55 | +$2.36 | 67% 3366-1674 (5040) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $14.7 | $22.93 | +$8.23 | 38% 632-1052 (1684) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.3¢ | $13.52 | — | -$13.52 | 47% 1475-1689 (3164) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $9.9 | $15 | +$5.1 | 54% 2316-1981 (4297) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 40.8¢ | $11.31 | — | -$11.31 | 48% 2157-2382 (4539) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $11.35 | — | -$11.35 | 47% 2060-2289 (4349) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $8.15 | $10 | +$1.85 | 52% 2655-2432 (5087) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $5 | +$1.7 | 44% 2059-2654 (4713) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 37% 1347-2255 (3602) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
460-295 (755)
Invested
$750
Value
$735
PnL
+$22.62
Record
51%
3344-3190 (6534)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$498.14
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Invested
$380.94
Value
$385
PnL
+$4.06
Record
98%
3678-79 (3757)
Invested
$299.66
Value
—
PnL
-$299.66
Record
50%
2249-2257 (4506)
Invested
$110.87
Value
$92.86
PnL
-$18.01
Record
50%
4397-4477 (8874)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.12
Value
$57.08
PnL
+$4.96
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$83.06
Value
$42.24
PnL
+$8.68
Record
52%
2184-2035 (4219)
Invested
$21.76
Value
$36
PnL
+$14.24
Record
48%
2113-2329 (4442)
Invested
$36.5
Value
$54.83
PnL
+$21.43
Record
59%
3675-2516 (6191)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$22.47
Value
$26.25
PnL
+$3.78
Record
38%
1410-2275 (3685)
Invested
$33.8
Value
$21.2
PnL
+$1.23
Record
62%
3967-2385 (6352)
Invested
$18.19
Value
$20.55
PnL
+$2.36
Record
67%
3366-1674 (5040)
Invested
$14.7
Value
$22.93
PnL
+$8.23
Record
38%
632-1052 (1684)
Invested
$13.52
Value
—
PnL
-$13.52
Record
47%
1475-1689 (3164)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$15
PnL
+$5.1
Record
54%
2316-1981 (4297)
Invested
$11.31
Value
—
PnL
-$11.31
Record
48%
2157-2382 (4539)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$11.35
Value
—
PnL
-$11.35
Record
47%
2060-2289 (4349)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.15
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.85
Record
52%
2655-2432 (5087)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.7
Record
44%
2059-2654 (4713)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1347-2255 (3602)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $735
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $385
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $57.08
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $42.24
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $36
aaa221
Up — $54.83