Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$666.64

Smart Money Signal

11 of 22 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,068

Combined PnL+$288.61

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,196

Combined PnL-$955.25

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	+$7.88	61% 460-295 (755)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$618.2	$1.2K	+$627.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$605.09	—	-$619.61
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 37.2¢	$505.27	$747.52	+$255.49	50% 2249-2257 (4506)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$750	—	-$696.4	51% 3344-3190 (6534)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$506.68	$495.89	+$6.32	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$246.87	$495.89	+$251.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$242.98	—	-$244.98
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$293.41	$244.08	-$49.33	51% 3138-3071 (6209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.1¢	$136.82	$244.08	+$107.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$156.59	—	-$156.59
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$36.4	$48.18	+$11.77	44% 2059-2654 (4713)
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$8.18	—	-$8.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$28.22	$48.18	+$19.95
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 40.1¢	$147.14	—	-$139.46	50% 4397-4477 (8874)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$77.63	$76.7	-$0.93	54% 2316-1981 (4297)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$41.82	$76.7	+$34.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.1¢	$35.81	—	-$35.81
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$37.76	$36.73	-$1.03	50% 2392-2413 (4805)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.9¢	$31.56	$36.73	+$5.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 3¢	$6.2	—	-$6.2
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$42.99	$53.17	+$10.18	47% 1475-1689 (3164)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$48.5	$92	+$43.5	50% 1894-1863 (3757)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 88.7¢	$37.3	$42.04	+$4.74	49% 1520-1565 (3085)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 74.1¢	$101.17	$36.89	-$18.69	52% 2184-2035 (4219)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$40.07	$32.76	-$7.31	52% 2655-2432 (5087)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$27.72	$28	+$0.28	98% 3678-79 (3757)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$11.77	—	-$11.77	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 58¢	$9.09	$15.26	+$6.17	71% 1584-646 (2230)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 44.7¢	$15.41	—	-$15.41	48% 2157-2382 (4539)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 77.2¢	$8.44	$7.57	-$0.88	67% 3366-1674 (5040)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$21.29	$7.74	-$7.43	62% 3967-2385 (6352)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$5.06	—	-$5.06	58% 4990-3651 (8641)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 33.3¢	$8.22	—	-$8.22	47% 2060-2289 (4349)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 22.6¢	$40.86	—	-$35.86	48% 2113-2329 (4442)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$13.82	—	-$13.82	38% 632-1052 (1684)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 51¢	$2.65	$5.2	+$2.55	51% 4643-4484 (9127)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$7.88

Record

61%

460-295 (755)

Both legs:

Down$618.250¢+$627.49

Up$605.0950¢-$619.61

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$505.27

Value

$747.52

PnL

+$255.49

Record

50%

2249-2257 (4506)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$750

Value

—

PnL

-$696.4

Record

51%

3344-3190 (6534)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$506.68

Value

$495.89

PnL

+$6.32

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

Both legs:

Down$246.8749.8¢+$251.3

Up$242.9849¢-$244.98

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$293.41

Value

$244.08

PnL

-$49.33

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

Both legs:

Down$136.8256.1¢+$107.26

Up$156.5961.8¢-$156.59

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Down

Invested

$36.4

Value

$48.18

PnL

+$11.77

Record

44%

2059-2654 (4713)

Both legs:

Up$8.181¢-$8.18

Down$28.2258.6¢+$19.95

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$147.14

Value

—

PnL

-$139.46

Record

50%

4397-4477 (8874)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$77.63

Value

$76.7

PnL

-$0.93

Record

54%

2316-1981 (4297)

Both legs:

Down$41.8254.5¢+$34.89

Up$35.8115.1¢-$35.81

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Down

Invested

$37.76

Value

$36.73

PnL

-$1.03

Record

50%

2392-2413 (4805)

Both legs:

Down$31.5685.9¢+$5.17

Up$6.23¢-$6.2

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$42.99

Value

$53.17

PnL

+$10.18

Record

47%

1475-1689 (3164)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$48.5

Value

$92

PnL

+$43.5

Record

50%

1894-1863 (3757)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$37.3

Value

$42.04

PnL

+$4.74

Record

49%

1520-1565 (3085)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$101.17

Value

$36.89

PnL

-$18.69

Record

52%

2184-2035 (4219)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$40.07

Value

$32.76

PnL

-$7.31

Record

52%

2655-2432 (5087)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$27.72

Value

$28

PnL

+$0.28

Record

98%

3678-79 (3757)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$11.77

Value

—

PnL

-$11.77

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$9.09

Value

$15.26

PnL

+$6.17

Record

71%

1584-646 (2230)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$15.41

Value

—

PnL

-$15.41

Record

48%

2157-2382 (4539)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$8.44

Value

$7.57

PnL

-$0.88

Record

67%

3366-1674 (5040)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$21.29

Value

$7.74

PnL

-$7.43

Record

62%

3967-2385 (6352)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

—

PnL

-$5.06

Record

58%

4990-3651 (8641)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$8.22

Value

—

PnL

-$8.22

Record

47%

2060-2289 (4349)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$40.86

Value

—

PnL

-$35.86

Record

48%

2113-2329 (4442)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$13.82

Value

—

PnL

-$13.82

Record

38%

632-1052 (1684)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$2.65

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$2.55

Record

51%

4643-4484 (9127)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 22 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2b9efd73...2bbd2d

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794682200

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.88

uninformedfloww

Down — $747.52

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

G-Penis-Monster

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

dvasdkasodk

Arbitrage — excluded

rabadabadoo

Down — $53.17

+$10.18

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