Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 71%
3 arb excluded
$3.2K
-$99.38
Smart Money Signal
17 of 24 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$7.38 | 61% 454-291 (745) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $674.27 | $1.3K | +$707.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $686.55 | — | -$714.52 | |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $735 | +$23.28 | 51% 3318-3179 (6497) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $511.04 | $487.04 | +$1.71 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.7¢ | $246.86 | $487.04 | +$248.71 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$247 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 69.7¢ | $153.77 | $164.5 | +$19.43 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 74.1¢ | $111.65 | $105.13 | -$6.52 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.1¢ | $77.93 | $105.13 | +$27.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.1¢ | $33.72 | — | -$33.72 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $67.76 | $81.25 | +$13.49 | 54% 2295-1973 (4268) |
SU suntoriCTR | Upavg 27.4¢ | $109.91 | — | -$109.91 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $34.59 | $43.05 | +$8.47 | 46% 1461-1683 (3144) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $25.67 | $30.29 | +$10.21 | 62% 3938-2372 (6310) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $24.35 | $29 | +$4.65 | 52% 2630-2425 (5055) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $28.19 | $29.22 | +$1.03 | 67% 3341-1667 (5008) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $24.2 | $28.67 | +$4.47 | 50% 2368-2397 (4765) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $22.23 | $22.45 | +$0.22 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $13.04 | $17 | +$3.96 | 38% 1393-2264 (3657) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $8.66 | $13.61 | +$4.95 | 37% 622-1041 (1663) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $8.76 | $10 | +$1.24 | 47% 2135-2370 (4505) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $8.8 | $20 | +$11.2 | 48% 1230-1322 (2552) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $31.24 | — | -$31.24 | 47% 2042-2277 (4319) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $4.35 | $6.3 | +$1.95 | 64% 2369-1311 (3680) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $4.99 | — | -$4.99 | 37% 1340-2240 (3580) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $4.37 | $5.75 | +$1.38 | 59% 3649-2497 (6146) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $5.49 | — | -$5.49 | 58% 4982-3643 (8625) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $2.79 | $5.82 | +$3.02 | 50% 1880-1856 (3736) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $3.36 | $6 | +$2.64 | 42% 1643-2244 (3887) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.5¢ | $25.8 | — | -$25.8 | 50% 2231-2229 (4460) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$7.38
Record
61%
454-291 (745)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
$735
PnL
+$23.28
Record
51%
3318-3179 (6497)
Invested
$511.04
Value
$487.04
PnL
+$1.71
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.77
Value
$164.5
PnL
+$19.43
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
Invested
$111.65
Value
$105.13
PnL
-$6.52
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.76
Value
$81.25
PnL
+$13.49
Record
54%
2295-1973 (4268)
Invested
$109.91
Value
—
PnL
-$109.91
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
Invested
$34.59
Value
$43.05
PnL
+$8.47
Record
46%
1461-1683 (3144)
Invested
$25.67
Value
$30.29
PnL
+$10.21
Record
62%
3938-2372 (6310)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$24.35
Value
$29
PnL
+$4.65
Record
52%
2630-2425 (5055)
Invested
$28.19
Value
$29.22
PnL
+$1.03
Record
67%
3341-1667 (5008)
Invested
$24.2
Value
$28.67
PnL
+$4.47
Record
50%
2368-2397 (4765)
Invested
$22.23
Value
$22.45
PnL
+$0.22
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$13.04
Value
$17
PnL
+$3.96
Record
38%
1393-2264 (3657)
Invested
$8.66
Value
$13.61
PnL
+$4.95
Record
37%
622-1041 (1663)
Invested
$8.76
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.24
Record
47%
2135-2370 (4505)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$11.2
Record
48%
1230-1322 (2552)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$31.24
Value
—
PnL
-$31.24
Record
47%
2042-2277 (4319)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$6.3
PnL
+$1.95
Record
64%
2369-1311 (3680)
Invested
$4.99
Value
—
PnL
-$4.99
Record
37%
1340-2240 (3580)
Invested
$4.37
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$1.38
Record
59%
3649-2497 (6146)
Invested
$5.49
Value
—
PnL
-$5.49
Record
58%
4982-3643 (8625)
Invested
$2.79
Value
$5.82
PnL
+$3.02
Record
50%
1880-1856 (3736)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.64
Record
42%
1643-2244 (3887)
Invested
$25.8
Value
—
PnL
-$25.8
Record
50%
2231-2229 (4460)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Down — $735
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $164.5
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $81.25
suntori
CTRUp — $0
rabadabadoo
Down — $43.05
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $30.29
MayorMamdani
Down — $29