Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Down 30%
$1.1K
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 23 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 454-291 (745) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $522.63 | $500.01 | +$14.24 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 60.5¢ | $105.43 | $123.41 | +$17.98 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $72.25 | $72.98 | +$0.73 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $68.12 | — | -$68.12 | 51% 961-907 (1868) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 53.5¢ | $37.32 | $50.16 | +$12.84 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 40.7¢ | $20.33 | $50 | +$29.67 | 58% 4982-3643 (8625) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $33.57 | $45 | +$11.43 | 54% 2295-1973 (4268) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 61.1¢ | $24.55 | $40.15 | +$15.6 | 44% 2041-2641 (4682) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 65.5¢ | $38.41 | $30 | -$8.41 | 47% 2135-2370 (4505) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 71.9¢ | $26.85 | $35 | +$8.15 | 51% 3318-3179 (6497) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 90.5¢ | $35.41 | $31.18 | +$1.11 | 62% 3938-2372 (6310) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $35.1 | — | -$35.1 | 50% 1880-1856 (3736) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $19.86 | $25.11 | +$5.25 | 46% 1461-1683 (3144) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $33.45 | $36.66 | +$12.66 | 59% 3649-2497 (6146) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.9¢ | $36.34 | — | -$36.34 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $17.5 | $35.71 | +$18.21 | 48% 1230-1322 (2552) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $12.2 | $15.25 | +$3.05 | 47% 2042-2277 (4319) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 55.5¢ | $8.61 | $9.09 | +$0.48 | 67% 3341-1667 (5008) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $5.04 | $6 | +$0.96 | 52% 2630-2425 (5055) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 21.4¢ | $3.43 | — | -$3.43 | 47% 2092-2317 (4409) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $1.98 | — | -$1.98 | 42% 1643-2244 (3887) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 36.4¢ | $134.55 | — | -$134.55 | 50% 2231-2229 (4460) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
454-291 (745)
Invested
$522.63
Value
$500.01
PnL
+$14.24
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Invested
$105.43
Value
$123.41
PnL
+$17.98
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
Invested
$72.25
Value
$72.98
PnL
+$0.73
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
Invested
$68.12
Value
—
PnL
-$68.12
Record
51%
961-907 (1868)
Invested
$37.32
Value
$50.16
PnL
+$12.84
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
Invested
$20.33
Value
$50
PnL
+$29.67
Record
58%
4982-3643 (8625)
Invested
$33.57
Value
$45
PnL
+$11.43
Record
54%
2295-1973 (4268)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$24.55
Value
$40.15
PnL
+$15.6
Record
44%
2041-2641 (4682)
Invested
$38.41
Value
$30
PnL
-$8.41
Record
47%
2135-2370 (4505)
Invested
$26.85
Value
$35
PnL
+$8.15
Record
51%
3318-3179 (6497)
Invested
$35.41
Value
$31.18
PnL
+$1.11
Record
62%
3938-2372 (6310)
Invested
$35.1
Value
—
PnL
-$35.1
Record
50%
1880-1856 (3736)
Invested
$19.86
Value
$25.11
PnL
+$5.25
Record
46%
1461-1683 (3144)
Invested
$33.45
Value
$36.66
PnL
+$12.66
Record
59%
3649-2497 (6146)
Invested
$36.34
Value
—
PnL
-$36.34
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$35.71
PnL
+$18.21
Record
48%
1230-1322 (2552)
ohioism<$100Invested
$12.2
Value
$15.25
PnL
+$3.05
Record
47%
2042-2277 (4319)
Invested
$8.61
Value
$9.09
PnL
+$0.48
Record
67%
3341-1667 (5008)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.04
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.96
Record
52%
2630-2425 (5055)
Invested
$3.43
Value
—
PnL
-$3.43
Record
47%
2092-2317 (4409)
Invested
$1.98
Value
—
PnL
-$1.98
Record
42%
1643-2244 (3887)
Invested
$134.55
Value
—
PnL
-$134.55
Record
50%
2231-2229 (4460)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $500.01
asdcaxz
Up — $123.41
hoodquant
Up — $72.98
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $50.16
Hcrystallash
Up — $50
ply-pm2
Up — $45
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $40.15
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $30