Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 41%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 22 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 454-291 (745) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $750.78 | $727.38 | +$0.6 | 51% 3318-3179 (6497) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $507.4 | $493 | +$0.1 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $246.7 | $493 | +$249.64 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $248.55 | — | -$249.54 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $180.18 | $182 | +$1.82 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 75.2¢ | $136.99 | $130 | -$6.33 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 69.1¢ | $76.76 | $65.18 | -$11.58 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 89.5¢ | $44.73 | $50 | +$5.27 | 71% 1579-644 (2223) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $25.95 | — | -$25.95 | 46% 1461-1683 (3144) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $17.22 | $15.3 | -$1.92 | 54% 2295-1973 (4268) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $11.87 | — | -$11.87 | 51% 961-907 (1868) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $15.34 | $14.31 | -$1.03 | 67% 3341-1667 (5008) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $7.93 | $13 | +$5.07 | 58% 4982-3643 (8625) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $10.1 | $12.19 | +$2.48 | 62% 3938-2372 (6310) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.6¢ | $6.74 | — | -$6.74 | 52% 2630-2425 (5055) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 18.1¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 50% 2368-2397 (4765) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 69.2¢ | $5.08 | $6.57 | +$1.49 | 50% 1880-1856 (3736) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 54.5¢ | $5.99 | $10.99 | +$5 | 37% 622-1041 (1663) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $3.95 | $5.1 | +$1.15 | 38% 1393-2264 (3657) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.67 | $9.34 | +$4.67 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $9.75 | — | -$9.75 | 47% 2135-2370 (4505) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 40.5¢ | $8.1 | — | -$8.1 | 47% 2042-2277 (4319) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 47% 2092-2317 (4409) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.1¢ | $49.58 | — | -$49.58 | 50% 2231-2229 (4460) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
454-291 (745)
Invested
$750.78
Value
$727.38
PnL
+$0.6
Record
51%
3318-3179 (6497)
Invested
$507.4
Value
$493
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Both legs:
Invested
$180.18
Value
$182
PnL
+$1.82
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
Invested
$136.99
Value
$130
PnL
-$6.33
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
Invested
$76.76
Value
$65.18
PnL
-$11.58
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$44.73
Value
$50
PnL
+$5.27
Record
71%
1579-644 (2223)
Invested
$25.95
Value
—
PnL
-$25.95
Record
46%
1461-1683 (3144)
Invested
$17.22
Value
$15.3
PnL
-$1.92
Record
54%
2295-1973 (4268)
Invested
$11.87
Value
—
PnL
-$11.87
Record
51%
961-907 (1868)
Invested
$15.34
Value
$14.31
PnL
-$1.03
Record
67%
3341-1667 (5008)
Invested
$7.93
Value
$13
PnL
+$5.07
Record
58%
4982-3643 (8625)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$12.19
PnL
+$2.48
Record
62%
3938-2372 (6310)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$6.74
Value
—
PnL
-$6.74
Record
52%
2630-2425 (5055)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
50%
2368-2397 (4765)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$6.57
PnL
+$1.49
Record
50%
1880-1856 (3736)
Invested
$5.99
Value
$10.99
PnL
+$5
Record
37%
622-1041 (1663)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$3.95
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$1.15
Record
38%
1393-2264 (3657)
Invested
$4.67
Value
$9.34
PnL
+$4.67
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
Invested
$9.75
Value
—
PnL
-$9.75
Record
47%
2135-2370 (4505)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
—
PnL
-$8.1
Record
47%
2042-2277 (4319)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
47%
2092-2317 (4409)
Invested
$49.58
Value
—
PnL
-$49.58
Record
50%
2231-2229 (4460)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $727.38
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $182
asdcaxz
Up — $130
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $65.18
BoneOhio
Up — $50
rabadabadoo
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
Up — $15.3
Little-big
CTRDown — $0