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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

24

Up 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Signal

Up

12 of 24 top traders (50%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,673

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,138

Combined PnL+$114.04

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.1K	61% 441-279 (720)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 52.8¢	$944.94	—	-$905.75	50% 2196-2203 (4399)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 49.5¢	$506.99	$500	+$8.3	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 52.5¢	$227.4	$226.53	-$0.87	50% 3041-2991 (6032)
SO soswald1	Downavg 64.3¢	$151.83	$154.52	+$2.69	51% 3258-3136 (6394)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 44¢	$62.91	$90	+$27.09	54% 2251-1949 (4200)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$80.25	—	-$80.25	50% 4343-4417 (8760)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 28.1¢	$25.42	—	-$25.42	43% 1993-2596 (4589)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$51.02	—	-$51.02	50% 1846-1828 (3674)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 34.3¢	$15.45	$41.91	+$26.46	47% 2043-2283 (4326)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 33.8¢	$33.74	$60	+$26.26	47% 2083-2336 (4419)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$19.4	—	-$19.4	63% 3881-2327 (6208)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 39.1¢	$17.92	$23.81	+$5.89	46% 1437-1660 (3097)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$16.61	—	-$16.61	38% 607-1007 (1614)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 46.9¢	$16.45	—	-$16.45	48% 1194-1295 (2489)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$14.4	—	-$14.4	59% 3587-2446 (6033)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 42.1¢	$34.28	—	-$31.22	51% 4952-4670 (9622)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 35¢	$3.9	$8	+$4.1	67% 3285-1642 (4927)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 35¢	$4.62	$7.6	+$2.98	49% 2315-2365 (4680)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$7.01	$11	+$3.99	38% 1364-2226 (3590)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 25.2¢	$7.31	—	-$7.31	47% 1998-2233 (4231)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 46¢	$4.26	$9.26	+$5	51% 947-894 (1841)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 57¢	$2.85	$5	+$2.15	52% 2568-2395 (4963)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	37% 1317-2199 (3516)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

61%

441-279 (720)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$944.94

Value

—

PnL

-$905.75

Record

50%

2196-2203 (4399)

Invested

$506.99

Value

$500

PnL

+$8.3

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$227.4

Value

$226.53

PnL

-$0.87

Record

50%

3041-2991 (6032)

Invested

$151.83

Value

$154.52

PnL

+$2.69

Record

51%

3258-3136 (6394)

Invested

$62.91

Value

$90

PnL

+$27.09

Record

54%

2251-1949 (4200)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$80.25

Value

—

PnL

-$80.25

Record

50%

4343-4417 (8760)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$25.42

Value

—

PnL

-$25.42

Record

43%

1993-2596 (4589)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$51.02

Value

—

PnL

-$51.02

Record

50%

1846-1828 (3674)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$15.45

Value

$41.91

PnL

+$26.46

Record

47%

2043-2283 (4326)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$33.74

Value

$60

PnL

+$26.26

Record

47%

2083-2336 (4419)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$19.4

Value

—

PnL

-$19.4

Record

63%

3881-2327 (6208)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$17.92

Value

$23.81

PnL

+$5.89

Record

46%

1437-1660 (3097)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$16.61

Value

—

PnL

-$16.61

Record

38%

607-1007 (1614)

Invested

$16.45

Value

—

PnL

-$16.45

Record

48%

1194-1295 (2489)

Invested

$14.4

Value

—

PnL

-$14.4

Record

59%

3587-2446 (6033)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$34.28

Value

—

PnL

-$31.22

Record

51%

4952-4670 (9622)

Invested

$3.9

Value

$8

PnL

+$4.1

Record

67%

3285-1642 (4927)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.62

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$2.98

Record

49%

2315-2365 (4680)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$7.01

Value

$11

PnL

+$3.99

Record

38%

1364-2226 (3590)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$7.31

Value

—

PnL

-$7.31

Record

47%

1998-2233 (4231)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$4.26

Value

$9.26

PnL

+$5

Record

51%

947-894 (1841)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.15

Record

52%

2568-2395 (4963)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1317-2199 (3516)

Smart Money Signal

Up

12 of 24 top traders (50%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf481af85...318319

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794675300

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $500

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $226.53

soswald1

Down — $154.52

ply-pm2

Down — $90

asdcaxz

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $41.91

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