Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Down 30%
$1.1K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 23 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 441-279 (720) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.9¢ | $511.89 | $500 | -$7.2 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $275.66 | $279 | +$3.34 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 81.6¢ | $63.19 | $71.21 | +$8.02 | 50% 3041-2991 (6032) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 64.8¢ | $61.2 | $71.68 | +$10.48 | 50% 1846-1828 (3674) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $30.95 | $35.35 | +$4.4 | 51% 3258-3136 (6394) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $24.05 | $21.25 | -$2.8 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $10.34 | $22 | +$11.66 | 58% 4958-3625 (8583) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 46.2¢ | $19.92 | — | -$19.92 | 48% 1194-1295 (2489) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $12.23 | $12.24 | +$0.01 | 52% 1352-1265 (2617) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $8.82 | $9 | +$0.18 | 63% 3881-2327 (6208) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $8.25 | $11.79 | +$3.54 | 59% 3587-2446 (6033) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 69.8¢ | $4.37 | $5.94 | +$1.57 | 52% 2568-2395 (4963) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $5.94 | $6 | +$0.06 | 67% 3285-1642 (4927) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $4.1 | $5 | +$0.9 | 51% 4952-4670 (9622) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $5.17 | $11 | +$5.83 | 60% 989-671 (1660) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $3.46 | $5.67 | +$2.21 | 46% 1437-1660 (3097) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $3.29 | $5.57 | +$2.28 | 38% 607-1007 (1614) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $2.78 | — | -$2.78 | 54% 2251-1949 (4200) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.8¢ | $1.53 | — | -$1.53 | 32% 994-2093 (3087) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 30.6¢ | $76.8 | — | -$76.8 | 50% 2196-2203 (4399) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.2¢ | $4.96 | — | -$4.96 | 38% 1364-2226 (3590) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 39.1¢ | $4.13 | — | -$4.13 | 47% 2083-2336 (4419) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
441-279 (720)
Invested
$511.89
Value
$500
PnL
-$7.2
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Invested
$275.66
Value
$279
PnL
+$3.34
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
Invested
$63.19
Value
$71.21
PnL
+$8.02
Record
50%
3041-2991 (6032)
Invested
$61.2
Value
$71.68
PnL
+$10.48
Record
50%
1846-1828 (3674)
Invested
$30.95
Value
$35.35
PnL
+$4.4
Record
51%
3258-3136 (6394)
Invested
$24.05
Value
$21.25
PnL
-$2.8
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
Invested
$10.34
Value
$22
PnL
+$11.66
Record
58%
4958-3625 (8583)
Invested
$19.92
Value
—
PnL
-$19.92
Record
48%
1194-1295 (2489)
Invested
$12.23
Value
$12.24
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
1352-1265 (2617)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$9
PnL
+$0.18
Record
63%
3881-2327 (6208)
Invested
$8.25
Value
$11.79
PnL
+$3.54
Record
59%
3587-2446 (6033)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.37
Value
$5.94
PnL
+$1.57
Record
52%
2568-2395 (4963)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
67%
3285-1642 (4927)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.9
Record
51%
4952-4670 (9622)
Invested
$5.17
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.83
Record
60%
989-671 (1660)
Invested
$3.46
Value
$5.67
PnL
+$2.21
Record
46%
1437-1660 (3097)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$5.57
PnL
+$2.28
Record
38%
607-1007 (1614)
Invested
$2.78
Value
—
PnL
-$2.78
Record
54%
2251-1949 (4200)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.53
Value
—
PnL
-$1.53
Record
32%
994-2093 (3087)
Invested
$76.8
Value
—
PnL
-$76.8
Record
50%
2196-2203 (4399)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.96
Value
—
PnL
-$4.96
Record
38%
1364-2226 (3590)
Invested
$4.13
Value
—
PnL
-$4.13
Record
47%
2083-2336 (4419)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
hoodquant
Up — $279
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $71.21
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $71.68
soswald1
Up — $35.35
asdcaxz
Up — $21.25
Hcrystallash
Up — $22
PBot-5
CTRDown — $0
0x50f7
Up — $12.24