Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
24
Down 46%
1 arb excluded
$896
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 24 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 441-279 (720) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$721.71 | 51% 3258-3136 (6394) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $501.33 | $490 | -$5.33 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$246 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $251.33 | — | -$251.33 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $131.91 | $133.24 | +$1.33 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $90.29 | $76.36 | -$12.85 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $40.31 | $50.47 | +$10.16 | 51% 4952-4670 (9622) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 94.4¢ | $33.98 | $26 | +$2.21 | 63% 3881-2327 (6208) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 90.8¢ | $16.44 | $18.11 | +$1.67 | 59% 3587-2446 (6033) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $18.75 | $15 | -$3.75 | 54% 2251-1949 (4200) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 62.8¢ | $13.53 | $16.67 | +$3.14 | 47% 2043-2283 (4326) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $12.81 | $21 | +$8.19 | 50% 1846-1828 (3674) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $8.55 | $10 | +$1.45 | 52% 2568-2395 (4963) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $7.36 | $10 | +$2.64 | 43% 1993-2596 (4589) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $8.51 | $13.51 | +$5 | 47% 2083-2336 (4419) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $7.2 | — | -$7.2 | 58% 4958-3625 (8583) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $5.64 | $10.64 | +$5 | 50% 3041-2991 (6032) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 64% 2317-1294 (3611) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.7 | — | -$4.7 | 50% 770-773 (1543) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 6.6¢ | $5.01 | — | -$5.01 | 32% 994-2093 (3087) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 45.4¢ | $3.8 | — | -$3.8 | 46% 1437-1660 (3097) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $1.92 | — | -$1.92 | 52% 1352-1265 (2617) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $0.7 | — | -$0.7 | 47% 1998-2233 (4231) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 5.2¢ | $0.67 | — | -$0.67 | 38% 607-1007 (1614) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 37% 1317-2199 (3516) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.8¢ | $6.06 | — | -$6.06 | 38% 1364-2226 (3590) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
441-279 (720)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$721.71
Record
51%
3258-3136 (6394)
Invested
$501.33
Value
$490
PnL
-$5.33
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Both legs:
Invested
$131.91
Value
$133.24
PnL
+$1.33
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
Invested
$90.29
Value
$76.36
PnL
-$12.85
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
Invested
$40.31
Value
$50.47
PnL
+$10.16
Record
51%
4952-4670 (9622)
Invested
$33.98
Value
$26
PnL
+$2.21
Record
63%
3881-2327 (6208)
Invested
$16.44
Value
$18.11
PnL
+$1.67
Record
59%
3587-2446 (6033)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$15
PnL
-$3.75
Record
54%
2251-1949 (4200)
Invested
$13.53
Value
$16.67
PnL
+$3.14
Record
47%
2043-2283 (4326)
Invested
$12.81
Value
$21
PnL
+$8.19
Record
50%
1846-1828 (3674)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.55
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.45
Record
52%
2568-2395 (4963)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$7.36
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.64
Record
43%
1993-2596 (4589)
Invested
$8.51
Value
$13.51
PnL
+$5
Record
47%
2083-2336 (4419)
Invested
$7.2
Value
—
PnL
-$7.2
Record
58%
4958-3625 (8583)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$10.64
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
3041-2991 (6032)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
64%
2317-1294 (3611)
Invested
$4.7
Value
—
PnL
-$4.7
Record
50%
770-773 (1543)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.01
Value
—
PnL
-$5.01
Record
32%
994-2093 (3087)
Invested
$3.8
Value
—
PnL
-$3.8
Record
46%
1437-1660 (3097)
Invested
$1.92
Value
—
PnL
-$1.92
Record
52%
1352-1265 (2617)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.7
Value
—
PnL
-$0.7
Record
47%
1998-2233 (4231)
Invested
$0.67
Value
—
PnL
-$0.67
Record
38%
607-1007 (1614)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1317-2199 (3516)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$6.06
Value
—
PnL
-$6.06
Record
38%
1364-2226 (3590)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $133.24
asdcaxz
Up — $76.36
blue.birds
Up — $50.47
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $26
aaa221
Up — $18.11
ply-pm2
Up — $15
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $16.67