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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

18

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 18 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,407
Combined PnL$-2.2K
Down9 traders
Total Value$1.3K
Total Shares1,324
Combined PnL+$75.6
Up — 50%Down — 50%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR
Up

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

61%

441-279 (720)

SO
soswald1CTR
Up

Invested

$750

Value

—

PnL

-$729.34

Record

51%

3258-3136 (6394)

HO
hoodquant
Down

Invested

$663.21

Value

$670.07

PnL

+$6.86

Record

98%

3543-73 (3616)

BY
ByteBadger92
Down

Invested

$516.32

Value

$497.59

PnL

+$5.1

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

AS
asdcaxzARB<$100
Up

Invested

$123.61

Value

$85.13

PnL

-$38.48

Record

50%

4343-4417 (8760)

Both legs:

Down$56.6866.6¢+$28.45
Up$66.9346.1¢-$66.93
ohioism<$100
Down

Invested

$28.15

Value

$62

PnL

+$33.85

Record

47%

1998-2233 (4231)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$65.44

Value

—

PnL

-$65.44

Record

50%

1846-1828 (3674)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Down

Invested

$20.04

Value

$25.2

PnL

+$5.16

Record

54%

2251-1949 (4200)

BL
blue.birdsCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$16.56

Value

—

PnL

-$16.56

Record

51%

4952-4670 (9622)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$11.19

Value

$28.19

PnL

+$17

Record

47%

2083-2336 (4419)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$16.42

Value

$12.93

PnL

-$0.52

Record

63%

3881-2327 (6208)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$9.54

Value

$11.46

PnL

+$1.92

Record

67%

3285-1642 (4927)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$10.43

Value

—

PnL

-$10.43

Record

38%

1364-2226 (3590)

BoneOhio<$100
Down

Invested

$5.45

Value

$10.9

PnL

+$5.45

Record

71%

1551-630 (2181)

RA
rabadabadoo<$100
Down

Invested

$4.48

Value

$5.27

PnL

+$0.79

Record

46%

1437-1660 (3097)

FL
flippingsharksCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.36

Value

—

PnL

-$3.36

Record

38%

607-1007 (1614)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

2315-2365 (4680)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.16

Value

—

PnL

-$0.16

Record

52%

2568-2395 (4963)

pspspsps5CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.41

Value

—

PnL

-$0.41

Record

32%

994-2093 (3087)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x6efb8bc2...3b95eb
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1794672000

Traders in this Market

0X

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.4K
SO

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$729.34
HO

hoodquant

Down — $670.07

+$6.86
BY

ByteBadger92

Down — $497.59

+$5.1
AS

asdcaxz

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$38.48

ohioism

Down — $62

+$33.85
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$65.44
PL

ply-pm2

Down — $25.2

+$5.16
BL

blue.birds

CTR

Up — $0

-$16.56
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $28.19

+$17
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