Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Down 65%
1 arb excluded
$591.82
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 23 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 62% 427-267 (694) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.9¢ | $504.6 | — | -$499.2 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $190.03 | $191.95 | +$1.92 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $97.78 | $99.38 | +$1.61 | 50% 1823-1791 (3614) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.9¢ | $51.55 | $99.38 | +$47.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.8¢ | $46.22 | — | -$46.22 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $69.78 | $75 | +$9.47 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 77.7¢ | $60.55 | $60.74 | +$2.09 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 85.5¢ | $45.55 | $53.28 | +$7.73 | 60% 3539-2389 (5928) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 71.8¢ | $33.04 | $46 | +$12.96 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $30.13 | $22.08 | -$8.05 | 54% 2215-1915 (4130) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 67.3¢ | $20.32 | $30.18 | +$9.86 | 38% 598-977 (1575) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 78.3¢ | $16.95 | $13.21 | +$2.64 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $11.2 | — | -$11.2 | 47% 2034-2298 (4332) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $9.2 | — | -$9.2 | 50% 747-748 (1495) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 46% 2616-3104 (5720) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $3.13 | — | -$3.13 | 46% 1413-1633 (3046) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.9¢ | $1.56 | — | -$1.56 | 52% 2516-2359 (4875) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 52.8¢ | $223.2 | — | -$223.2 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $62.84 | — | -$62.84 | 48% 1159-1269 (2428) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $22.1 | — | -$22.1 | 44% 1957-2530 (4487) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 1.4¢ | $1.04 | — | -$1.04 | 49% 2260-2317 (4577) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.9¢ | $3.93 | — | -$3.93 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.06 | — | -$0.06 | 51% 1328-1257 (2585) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $10.81 | — | -$10.81 | 58% 4940-3609 (8549) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 16¢ | $1.1 | — | -$1.1 | 67% 3226-1609 (4835) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
62%
427-267 (694)
Invested
$504.6
Value
—
PnL
-$499.2
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Invested
$190.03
Value
$191.95
PnL
+$1.92
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$97.78
Value
$99.38
PnL
+$1.61
Record
50%
1823-1791 (3614)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$69.78
Value
$75
PnL
+$9.47
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Invested
$60.55
Value
$60.74
PnL
+$2.09
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Invested
$45.55
Value
$53.28
PnL
+$7.73
Record
60%
3539-2389 (5928)
Invested
$33.04
Value
$46
PnL
+$12.96
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$30.13
Value
$22.08
PnL
-$8.05
Record
54%
2215-1915 (4130)
Invested
$20.32
Value
$30.18
PnL
+$9.86
Record
38%
598-977 (1575)
Invested
$16.95
Value
$13.21
PnL
+$2.64
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Invested
$11.2
Value
—
PnL
-$11.2
Record
47%
2034-2298 (4332)
Invested
$9.2
Value
—
PnL
-$9.2
Record
50%
747-748 (1495)
Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
46%
2616-3104 (5720)
Invested
$3.13
Value
—
PnL
-$3.13
Record
46%
1413-1633 (3046)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.56
Value
—
PnL
-$1.56
Record
52%
2516-2359 (4875)
Invested
$223.2
Value
—
PnL
-$223.2
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$62.84
Value
—
PnL
-$62.84
Record
48%
1159-1269 (2428)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$22.1
Value
—
PnL
-$22.1
Record
44%
1957-2530 (4487)
Invested
$1.04
Value
—
PnL
-$1.04
Record
49%
2260-2317 (4577)
Invested
$3.93
Value
—
PnL
-$3.93
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Invested
$0.06
Value
—
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
1328-1257 (2585)
Invested
$10.81
Value
—
PnL
-$10.81
Record
58%
4940-3609 (8549)
Invested
$1.1
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
67%
3226-1609 (4835)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $191.95
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $75
soswald1
Up — $60.74
aaa221
Up — $53.28
asdcaxz
Up — $46
ply-pm2
Up — $22.08
flippingsharks
Up — $30.18