Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 54%
2 arb excluded
$2.6K
$-1.2K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 24 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.1K | 62% 427-267 (694) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 69.6¢ | $845.38 | $778.44 | -$10.4 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $640.67 | -$34.26 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $320.33 | $640.67 | +$322.54 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $337.5 | — | -$356.8 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $520.68 | $500.14 | +$15.99 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $247.78 | $500.14 | +$258.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.3¢ | $241.28 | — | -$242.6 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $220.47 | $222.7 | +$2.23 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
SU suntori | Downavg 28.2¢ | $55.39 | $196.51 | +$141.12 | 46% 2616-3104 (5720) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 55.4¢ | $149.24 | — | -$149.12 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 47.1¢ | $114.94 | — | -$95.19 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 62.2¢ | $200.87 | $59.84 | +$28.89 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $76.91 | $44.56 | +$19.19 | 54% 2215-1915 (4130) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 92.7¢ | $54.8 | $37.84 | -$7.14 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $16.45 | $35 | +$18.55 | 48% 1159-1269 (2428) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 40.7¢ | $11.25 | $27.64 | +$16.39 | 44% 1957-2530 (4487) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 39.2¢ | $7.85 | $20 | +$12.15 | 47% 1989-2244 (4233) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 61.9¢ | $17.96 | — | -$17.96 | 50% 1823-1791 (3614) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $15.97 | $15.35 | -$0.62 | 67% 3226-1609 (4835) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.7¢ | $8.26 | — | -$8.26 | 38% 1343-2192 (3535) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $10.63 | $11.16 | +$0.76 | 46% 1413-1633 (3046) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $9.26 | $20.35 | +$11.09 | 50% 747-748 (1495) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.2¢ | $9.8 | — | -$9.8 | 47% 1969-2182 (4151) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $4.5 | $10 | +$5.5 | 47% 2034-2298 (4332) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.1¢ | $13.77 | — | -$13.77 | 38% 598-977 (1575) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 60% 3539-2389 (5928) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.1¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 49% 2260-2317 (4577) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 64% 2269-1266 (3535) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
62%
427-267 (694)
Invested
$845.38
Value
$778.44
PnL
-$10.4
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$750
Value
$640.67
PnL
-$34.26
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Both legs:
Invested
$520.68
Value
$500.14
PnL
+$15.99
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Both legs:
Invested
$220.47
Value
$222.7
PnL
+$2.23
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$55.39
Value
$196.51
PnL
+$141.12
Record
46%
2616-3104 (5720)
Invested
$149.24
Value
—
PnL
-$149.12
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$114.94
Value
—
PnL
-$95.19
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$200.87
Value
$59.84
PnL
+$28.89
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Invested
$76.91
Value
$44.56
PnL
+$19.19
Record
54%
2215-1915 (4130)
Invested
$54.8
Value
$37.84
PnL
-$7.14
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Invested
$16.45
Value
$35
PnL
+$18.55
Record
48%
1159-1269 (2428)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.25
Value
$27.64
PnL
+$16.39
Record
44%
1957-2530 (4487)
Invested
$7.85
Value
$20
PnL
+$12.15
Record
47%
1989-2244 (4233)
Invested
$17.96
Value
—
PnL
-$17.96
Record
50%
1823-1791 (3614)
Invested
$15.97
Value
$15.35
PnL
-$0.62
Record
67%
3226-1609 (4835)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$8.26
Value
—
PnL
-$8.26
Record
38%
1343-2192 (3535)
Invested
$10.63
Value
$11.16
PnL
+$0.76
Record
46%
1413-1633 (3046)
Invested
$9.26
Value
$20.35
PnL
+$11.09
Record
50%
747-748 (1495)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
—
PnL
-$9.8
Record
47%
1969-2182 (4151)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.5
Record
47%
2034-2298 (4332)
Invested
$13.77
Value
—
PnL
-$13.77
Record
38%
598-977 (1575)
Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
60%
3539-2389 (5928)
Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
49%
2260-2317 (4577)
Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
64%
2269-1266 (3535)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $778.44
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $222.7
suntori
Down — $196.51
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $59.84
ply-pm2
Down — $44.56