Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 88%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
$148.67
Smart Money Signal
14 of 16 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$3.51 | 62% 427-267 (694) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $690.01 | +$7.24 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $507.36 | $506.23 | +$6.23 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $252.72 | $506.23 | +$253.63 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $247.8 | — | -$247.4 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $396.15 | $400.15 | +$4 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 38.1¢ | $81.1 | $163.92 | +$82.82 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 55.8¢ | $69.46 | — | -$69.46 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 52.3¢ | $43.73 | $55 | +$11.27 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 26.3¢ | $23.1 | $88 | +$64.9 | 51% 926-882 (1808) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $21.9 | $30 | +$8.1 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 41.3¢ | $14 | $30 | +$16 | 44% 1957-2530 (4487) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 48.5¢ | $22.5 | $30 | +$7.5 | 54% 2215-1915 (4130) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $18.58 | $15 | -$0.47 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $5.33 | $13 | +$7.67 | 48% 1159-1269 (2428) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $2.33 | $5 | +$2.67 | 52% 2516-2359 (4875) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $3.5 | $5.22 | +$1.72 | 67% 3226-1609 (4835) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $2 | $5 | +$3 | 47% 2034-2298 (4332) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 47% 1969-2182 (4151) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$3.51
Record
62%
427-267 (694)
Invested
$750
Value
$690.01
PnL
+$7.24
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Invested
$507.36
Value
$506.23
PnL
+$6.23
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Both legs:
Invested
$396.15
Value
$400.15
PnL
+$4
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$81.1
Value
$163.92
PnL
+$82.82
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$69.46
Value
—
PnL
-$69.46
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$43.73
Value
$55
PnL
+$11.27
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Invested
$23.1
Value
$88
PnL
+$64.9
Record
51%
926-882 (1808)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$30
PnL
+$8.1
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$14
Value
$30
PnL
+$16
Record
44%
1957-2530 (4487)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$30
PnL
+$7.5
Record
54%
2215-1915 (4130)
Invested
$18.58
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.47
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Invested
$5.33
Value
$13
PnL
+$7.67
Record
48%
1159-1269 (2428)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$2.33
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.67
Record
52%
2516-2359 (4875)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$5.22
PnL
+$1.72
Record
67%
3226-1609 (4835)
Invested
$2
Value
$5
PnL
+$3
Record
47%
2034-2298 (4332)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
47%
1969-2182 (4151)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.3K
soswald1
Down — $690.01
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $400.15
uninformedfloww
Down — $163.92
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $55
Little-big
Down — $88
blue.birds
Down — $30
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $30