Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$220.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,675

Combined PnL+$415.74

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares445

Combined PnL-$195.61

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$3.36	62% 427-267 (694)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$621.15	$1.2K	+$654.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$621.74	—	-$657.73
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 58.4¢	$884.04	$1.2K	+$345.17	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.1¢	$522.54	$493.52	+$5.8	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$246.14	$493.52	+$252.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$248.04	—	-$247.02
SO soswald1	Downavg 68.5¢	$179.51	$167.86	-$11.56	51% 3198-3088 (6286)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$128.14	$129.43	+$1.29	98% 3454-73 (3527)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$123.02	$97.03	-$25.99	52% 4918-4624 (9542)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.8¢	$51.79	—	-$51.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.4¢	$71.23	$97.03	+$25.8
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$119.76	$112.43	-$7.32	50% 4298-4377 (8675)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$76.08	$112.43	+$36.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.1¢	$43.68	—	-$43.68
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$86.06	$90	+$3.94	54% 2215-1915 (4130)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$41.81	—	-$41.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$44.25	$90	+$45.75
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$116.79	$89.41	-$27.37	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.8¢	$70.48	$89.41	+$18.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.4¢	$46.3	—	-$46.3
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 53.3¢	$92.14	—	-$92.14	50% 1823-1791 (3614)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 47¢	$15.51	$33	+$17.49	58% 4940-3609 (8549)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 37.4¢	$23.71	$32	+$21.34	47% 2034-2298 (4332)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$20.8	$30.94	+$10.14	67% 3226-1609 (4835)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$15.75	$26.14	+$10.39	49% 2260-2317 (4577)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$21.48	—	-$21.48	47% 1969-2182 (4151)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$12.7	—	-$12.7	38% 598-977 (1575)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$29.29	$20.62	+$7.04	63% 3817-2281 (6098)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$16.65	$12.73	-$2.54	46% 1413-1633 (3046)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 59¢	$6.7	$11.36	+$4.66	64% 2269-1266 (3535)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 39.6¢	$20.56	—	-$20.56	47% 1989-2244 (4233)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$3.67	$6	+$2.33	42% 1545-2147 (3692)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 92¢	$9.2	$10	+$0.8	48% 1402-1515 (2917)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 34.8¢	$3.86	—	-$3.86	52% 2516-2359 (4875)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 39¢	$3.12	$8	+$4.88	48% 1159-1269 (2428)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$2.55	—	-$2.55	60% 3539-2389 (5928)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$3.36

Record

62%

427-267 (694)

Both legs:

Down$621.1550¢+$654.37

Up$621.7450¢-$657.73

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$884.04

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$345.17

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$522.54

Value

$493.52

PnL

+$5.8

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Both legs:

Down$246.1449.9¢+$252.82

Up$248.0449.1¢-$247.02

soswald1

Down

Invested

$179.51

Value

$167.86

PnL

-$11.56

Record

51%

3198-3088 (6286)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$128.14

Value

$129.43

PnL

+$1.29

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$123.02

Value

$97.03

PnL

-$25.99

Record

52%

4918-4624 (9542)

Both legs:

Up$51.7935.8¢-$51.79

Down$71.2373.4¢+$25.8

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$119.76

Value

$112.43

PnL

-$7.32

Record

50%

4298-4377 (8675)

Both legs:

Down$76.0867.7¢+$36.35

Up$43.6839.1¢-$43.68

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$86.06

Value

$90

PnL

+$3.94

Record

54%

2215-1915 (4130)

Both legs:

Up$41.8137.9¢-$41.81

Down$44.2549.2¢+$45.75

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$116.79

Value

$89.41

PnL

-$27.37

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

Both legs:

Down$70.4878.8¢+$18.93

Up$46.356.4¢-$46.3

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$92.14

Value

—

PnL

-$92.14

Record

50%

1823-1791 (3614)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$15.51

Value

$33

PnL

+$17.49

Record

58%

4940-3609 (8549)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$23.71

Value

$32

PnL

+$21.34

Record

47%

2034-2298 (4332)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$20.8

Value

$30.94

PnL

+$10.14

Record

67%

3226-1609 (4835)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$15.75

Value

$26.14

PnL

+$10.39

Record

49%

2260-2317 (4577)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$21.48

Value

—

PnL

-$21.48

Record

47%

1969-2182 (4151)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$12.7

Value

—

PnL

-$12.7

Record

38%

598-977 (1575)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$29.29

Value

$20.62

PnL

+$7.04

Record

63%

3817-2281 (6098)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$16.65

Value

$12.73

PnL

-$2.54

Record

46%

1413-1633 (3046)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$6.7

Value

$11.36

PnL

+$4.66

Record

64%

2269-1266 (3535)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$20.56

Value

—

PnL

-$20.56

Record

47%

1989-2244 (4233)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$3.67

Value

PnL

+$2.33

Record

42%

1545-2147 (3692)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$9.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.8

Record

48%

1402-1515 (2917)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$3.86

Value

—

PnL

-$3.86

Record

52%

2516-2359 (4875)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$3.12

Value

PnL

+$4.88

Record

48%

1159-1269 (2428)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

—

PnL

-$2.55

Record

60%

3539-2389 (5928)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9f1d5411...0bf51c

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794665400

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$3.36

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.2K

+$345.17

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.8

soswald1

Down — $167.86

-$11.56

hoodquant

Down — $129.43

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$92.14

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