Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 61%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 19 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 62% 427-267 (694) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $924.37 | $933.71 | +$9.34 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $748.85 | +$3.55 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $495.31 | -$3.19 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.66 | $495.31 | +$246.81 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 26.5¢ | $12.2 | $46 | +$33.8 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $34.65 | $34.68 | +$0.03 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $34.8 | — | -$34.8 | 50% 1823-1791 (3614) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $7.83 | $27 | +$19.17 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $23.32 | $21.02 | -$2.3 | 54% 2215-1915 (4130) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $19.56 | — | -$19.56 | 58% 4940-3609 (8549) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 72.9¢ | $12.89 | $12.33 | -$0.48 | 67% 3226-1609 (4835) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $10 | +$0.01 | 51% 1328-1257 (2585) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 36.5¢ | $8.24 | $8.92 | +$2.29 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $5.94 | $6.06 | +$0.12 | 49% 2260-2317 (4577) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.95 | $5.05 | +$0.1 | 64% 2269-1266 (3535) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $1.12 | — | -$1.12 | 32% 980-2061 (3041) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $3.04 | — | -$3.04 | 46% 1413-1633 (3046) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.31 | — | -$1.31 | 38% 1343-2192 (3535) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $0.26 | $0.26 | +$0 | 42% 1545-2147 (3692) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 1298-2160 (3458) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
62%
427-267 (694)
Invested
$924.37
Value
$933.71
PnL
+$9.34
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$750
Value
$748.85
PnL
+$3.55
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Invested
$500
Value
$495.31
PnL
-$3.19
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Both legs:
Invested
$12.2
Value
$46
PnL
+$33.8
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$34.65
Value
$34.68
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Invested
$34.8
Value
—
PnL
-$34.8
Record
50%
1823-1791 (3614)
Invested
$7.83
Value
$27
PnL
+$19.17
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$23.32
Value
$21.02
PnL
-$2.3
Record
54%
2215-1915 (4130)
Invested
$19.56
Value
—
PnL
-$19.56
Record
58%
4940-3609 (8549)
Invested
$12.89
Value
$12.33
PnL
-$0.48
Record
67%
3226-1609 (4835)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.01
Record
51%
1328-1257 (2585)
Invested
$8.24
Value
$8.92
PnL
+$2.29
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6.06
PnL
+$0.12
Record
49%
2260-2317 (4577)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.1
Record
64%
2269-1266 (3535)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.12
Record
32%
980-2061 (3041)
Invested
$3.04
Value
—
PnL
-$3.04
Record
46%
1413-1633 (3046)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$1.31
Record
38%
1343-2192 (3535)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.26
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1545-2147 (3692)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
1298-2160 (3458)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $933.71
soswald1
Down — $748.85
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $46
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $34.68
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $27
ply-pm2
Down — $21.02
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0