Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 61%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$7.85
Smart Money Signal
11 of 18 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$3.57 | 62% 427-267 (694) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $745 | +$4.7 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $499.01 | -$0.47 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $249.5 | $499.01 | +$249.53 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 47.8¢ | $46.09 | $67.82 | +$40.73 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 83.4¢ | $73.98 | $35 | +$12.09 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 58.5¢ | $35.1 | — | -$35.1 | 50% 1823-1791 (3614) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 39.6¢ | $8.72 | $22 | +$13.28 | 44% 1957-2530 (4487) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $21.62 | $23.5 | +$1.88 | 38% 1343-2192 (3535) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $4.5 | $10 | +$5.5 | 46% 1413-1633 (3046) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 37.5¢ | $3.87 | $7.09 | +$3.22 | 54% 2215-1915 (4130) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $6.44 | $6 | -$0.44 | 64% 2269-1266 (3535) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $5.35 | $5 | -$0.35 | 52% 2516-2359 (4875) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $5.17 | $2.86 | -$2.31 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.4¢ | $8.05 | — | -$7.87 | 46% 2616-3104 (5720) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.6¢ | $10.8 | — | -$2.44 | 67% 3226-1609 (4835) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $0.92 | — | -$0.92 | 50% 747-748 (1495) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $3.55 | — | +$0.1 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $42.4 | — | -$42.4 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.7¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 49% 2260-2317 (4577) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$3.57
Record
62%
427-267 (694)
Invested
$750
Value
$745
PnL
+$4.7
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Invested
$500
Value
$499.01
PnL
-$0.47
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.09
Value
$67.82
PnL
+$40.73
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$73.98
Value
$35
PnL
+$12.09
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Invested
$35.1
Value
—
PnL
-$35.1
Record
50%
1823-1791 (3614)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$8.72
Value
$22
PnL
+$13.28
Record
44%
1957-2530 (4487)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$21.62
Value
$23.5
PnL
+$1.88
Record
38%
1343-2192 (3535)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.5
Record
46%
1413-1633 (3046)
Invested
$3.87
Value
$7.09
PnL
+$3.22
Record
54%
2215-1915 (4130)
Invested
$6.44
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.44
Record
64%
2269-1266 (3535)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.35
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.35
Record
52%
2516-2359 (4875)
Invested
$5.17
Value
$2.86
PnL
-$2.31
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Invested
$8.05
Value
—
PnL
-$7.87
Record
46%
2616-3104 (5720)
Invested
$10.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.44
Record
67%
3226-1609 (4835)
Invested
$0.92
Value
—
PnL
-$0.92
Record
50%
747-748 (1495)
Invested
$3.55
Value
—
PnL
+$0.1
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Invested
$42.4
Value
—
PnL
-$42.4
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
49%
2260-2317 (4577)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
soswald1
Down — $745
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $67.82
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $35
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $22
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $23.5
rabadabadoo
Down — $10
ply-pm2
Down — $7.09