Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Down 47%
3 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$103.95
Smart Money Signal
9 of 19 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$0.88 | 62% 427-267 (694) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $700.3 | $1.4K | +$719.18 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $699.93 | — | -$720.06 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $503.2 | $500 | -$0.75 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $246.28 | — | -$250.75 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 77.4¢ | $104.12 | $106.07 | +$1.95 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.4¢ | $82.08 | $106.07 | +$23.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.4¢ | $22.04 | — | -$22.04 | |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 79.6¢ | $83.63 | $101.21 | +$17.58 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 82.7¢ | $74.45 | $76.08 | +$10.14 | 60% 3539-2389 (5928) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $41.95 | $45 | +$7.6 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $38.52 | $40.8 | +$2.28 | 54% 2215-1915 (4130) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $38.69 | $39.08 | +$0.39 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $17.82 | $29.2 | +$11.38 | 50% 1823-1791 (3614) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.8¢ | $8.51 | — | -$8.51 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 86.5¢ | $9.75 | $10 | +$0.75 | 67% 3226-1609 (4835) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 49% 2260-2317 (4577) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 92.5¢ | $7.25 | $6.42 | -$0.83 | 52% 2516-2359 (4875) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $4.43 | $5.11 | +$0.68 | 46% 1413-1633 (3046) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $5.58 | $4 | -$0.74 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 25¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 42% 1545-2147 (3692) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 24¢ | $113.79 | — | -$113.79 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.3¢ | $4.66 | — | -$4.66 | 46% 2616-3104 (5720) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 24.6¢ | $8.6 | — | -$8.6 | 47% 1989-2244 (4233) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 44% 1957-2530 (4487) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 41.5¢ | $5.81 | — | -$5.81 | 47% 1969-2182 (4151) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $3.01 | — | -$3.01 | 47% 2034-2298 (4332) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$0.88
Record
62%
427-267 (694)
Both legs:
Invested
$503.2
Value
$500
PnL
-$0.75
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$104.12
Value
$106.07
PnL
+$1.95
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.63
Value
$101.21
PnL
+$17.58
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Invested
$74.45
Value
$76.08
PnL
+$10.14
Record
60%
3539-2389 (5928)
Invested
$41.95
Value
$45
PnL
+$7.6
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$38.52
Value
$40.8
PnL
+$2.28
Record
54%
2215-1915 (4130)
Invested
$38.69
Value
$39.08
PnL
+$0.39
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$17.82
Value
$29.2
PnL
+$11.38
Record
50%
1823-1791 (3614)
Invested
$8.51
Value
—
PnL
-$8.51
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.75
Record
67%
3226-1609 (4835)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
49%
2260-2317 (4577)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.25
Value
$6.42
PnL
-$0.83
Record
52%
2516-2359 (4875)
Invested
$4.43
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$0.68
Record
46%
1413-1633 (3046)
Invested
$5.58
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.74
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
42%
1545-2147 (3692)
Invested
$113.79
Value
—
PnL
-$113.79
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$4.66
Value
—
PnL
-$4.66
Record
46%
2616-3104 (5720)
Invested
$8.6
Value
—
PnL
-$8.6
Record
47%
1989-2244 (4233)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
44%
1957-2530 (4487)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$5.81
Value
—
PnL
-$5.81
Record
47%
1969-2182 (4151)
Invested
$3.01
Value
—
PnL
-$3.01
Record
47%
2034-2298 (4332)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Up — $101.21
aaa221
Up — $76.08
asdcaxz
Up — $45
ply-pm2
Up — $40.8
hoodquant
Up — $39.08
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $29.2
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0