Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 14 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Up (64%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$23.43

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,242

Combined PnL-$28.75

Down8 traders

Total Value$451.83

Total Shares469

Combined PnL+$5.32

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$1.16	62% 421-262 (683)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$750	$706.66	-$9.18	51% 3170-3070 (6240)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50.4¢	$515.07	$499.05	+$2.2	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.2¢	$303.88	$307.85	+$3.98	98% 3425-72 (3497)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 27.5¢	$72.81	$49.04	-$18.37	49% 4271-4363 (8634)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$41.9	$32.88	-$9.02	50% 1805-1780 (3585)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$28.11	$29.86	+$1.75	67% 3205-1601 (4806)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 80¢	$63.51	$27.55	+$1.03	52% 2098-1948 (4046)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 46.6¢	$15.02	$21.9	+$6.88	47% 2017-2278 (4295)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 95.4¢	$54.93	$18.56	+$1.86	63% 3794-2264 (6058)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 9.7¢	$4.82	$11.63	+$6.81	54% 2198-1898 (4096)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 3.5¢	$10.85	$10.17	-$0.68	44% 1940-2509 (4449)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 95¢	$9.8	$9.98	+$0.17	52% 2502-2335 (4837)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$5.38	$7.26	+$1.88	46% 1397-1625 (3022)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96¢	$7.89	$3.25	-$1.34	64% 2251-1263 (3514)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 8.2¢	$9.18	$2.31	-$1.18	52% 4903-4599 (9502)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 6.6¢	$2.2	$1.5	-$0.7	38% 597-969 (1566)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$0.4	$0.89	+$0.5	32% 974-2040 (3014)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 7¢	$1	$0.64	-$0.36	49% 2245-2302 (4547)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 8.1¢	$4.05	$0.03	-$4.03	47% 1973-2229 (4202)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 4.4¢	$1.86	$0.02	-$1.84	47% 1952-2164 (4116)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 6.5¢	$2.66	$0.02	-$2.64	38% 1328-2178 (3506)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$1.16

Record

62%

421-262 (683)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$750

Value

$706.66

PnL

-$9.18

Record

51%

3170-3070 (6240)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$515.07

Value

$499.05

PnL

+$2.2

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$303.88

Value

$307.85

PnL

+$3.98

Record

98%

3425-72 (3497)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$72.81

Value

$49.04

PnL

-$18.37

Record

49%

4271-4363 (8634)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$41.9

Value

$32.88

PnL

-$9.02

Record

50%

1805-1780 (3585)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$28.11

Value

$29.86

PnL

+$1.75

Record

67%

3205-1601 (4806)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$63.51

Value

$27.55

PnL

+$1.03

Record

52%

2098-1948 (4046)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$15.02

Value

$21.9

PnL

+$6.88

Record

47%

2017-2278 (4295)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$54.93

Value

$18.56

PnL

+$1.86

Record

63%

3794-2264 (6058)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$4.82

Value

$11.63

PnL

+$6.81

Record

54%

2198-1898 (4096)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$10.85

Value

$10.17

PnL

-$0.68

Record

44%

1940-2509 (4449)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

2502-2335 (4837)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$7.26

PnL

+$1.88

Record

46%

1397-1625 (3022)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$7.89

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$1.34

Record

64%

2251-1263 (3514)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$9.18

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$1.18

Record

52%

4903-4599 (9502)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.7

Record

38%

597-969 (1566)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$0.5

Record

32%

974-2040 (3014)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

2245-2302 (4547)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.03

Record

47%

1973-2229 (4202)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.84

Record

47%

1952-2164 (4116)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.66

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.64

Record

38%

1328-2178 (3506)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.