Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$745.86

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 25 top traders (72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,236

Combined PnL+$316.49

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,286

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 55.3¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$55.66	50% 2116-2116 (4232)
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	-$972.22	62% 421-262 (683)
SO soswald1	Downavg 51¢	$779.18	$619.74	+$48.83	51% 3170-3070 (6240)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 84.8¢	$518.9	$612	+$93.1	42% 1520-2127 (3647)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.6¢	$537.34	$497.01	+$7.6	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$374.33	$330.1	-$44.23	50% 2996-2942 (5938)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.4¢	$219.31	$330.1	+$110.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.3¢	$155.01	—	-$155.01
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$142.56	$144	+$1.44	98% 3425-72 (3497)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$100.87	$129.98	+$29.11	54% 2198-1898 (4096)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.7¢	$73.69	$129.98	+$56.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.4¢	$27.18	—	-$27.18
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 39.1¢	$106.66	$101.9	-$4.76	49% 4271-4363 (8634)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$38.05	$101.9	+$63.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.1¢	$68.61	—	-$68.61
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 77.8¢	$90.43	$89	-$1.43	47% 2017-2278 (4295)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.7¢	$21.23	—	-$21.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.8¢	$69.2	$89	+$19.8
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$28.85	$54.15	+$25.3	47% 1973-2229 (4202)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$29.87	$45.47	+$15.6	47% 1952-2164 (4116)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 64¢	$35.08	$54.82	+$19.73	50% 1311-1307 (2618)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 80.5¢	$36.2	$33.28	-$2.92	38% 1328-2178 (3506)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$15.65	$25	+$9.35	52% 2502-2335 (4837)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 47¢	$16.45	$35	+$18.55	48% 1156-1258 (2414)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 17.6¢	$12.32	—	-$9.43	60% 3515-2365 (5880)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 36.5¢	$14.32	—	-$14.32	46% 1397-1625 (3022)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 29.3¢	$10.92	—	-$10.92	52% 4903-4599 (9502)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$8.74	$12.28	+$3.54	67% 3205-1601 (4806)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 77.9¢	$7.85	$10.08	+$2.23	49% 2245-2302 (4547)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 17.7¢	$7.66	—	-$7.66	38% 597-969 (1566)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 47¢	$6.58	$14	+$7.42	58% 4936-3607 (8543)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$6.38	$13.46	+$7.08	51% 916-874 (1790)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 84¢	$5.6	$5.48	-$0.12	64% 2251-1263 (3514)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$1,097

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$55.66

Record

50%

2116-2116 (4232)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

-$972.22

Record

62%

421-262 (683)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$779.18

Value

$619.74

PnL

+$48.83

Record

51%

3170-3070 (6240)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$518.9

Value

$612

PnL

+$93.1

Record

42%

1520-2127 (3647)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$537.34

Value

$497.01

PnL

+$7.6

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$374.33

Value

$330.1

PnL

-$44.23

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

Both legs:

Down$219.3166.4¢+$110.79

Up$155.0146.3¢-$155.01

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$142.56

Value

$144

PnL

+$1.44

Record

98%

3425-72 (3497)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$100.87

Value

$129.98

PnL

+$29.11

Record

54%

2198-1898 (4096)

Both legs:

Down$73.6956.7¢+$56.29

Up$27.1825.4¢-$27.18

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$106.66

Value

$101.9

PnL

-$4.76

Record

49%

4271-4363 (8634)

Both legs:

Down$38.0537.3¢+$63.85

Up$68.6139.1¢-$68.61

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$90.43

Value

$89

PnL

-$1.43

Record

47%

2017-2278 (4295)

Both legs:

Up$21.2332.7¢-$21.23

Down$69.277.8¢+$19.8

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$28.85

Value

$54.15

PnL

+$25.3

Record

47%

1973-2229 (4202)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$29.87

Value

$45.47

PnL

+$15.6

Record

47%

1952-2164 (4116)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$35.08

Value

$54.82

PnL

+$19.73

Record

50%

1311-1307 (2618)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$36.2

Value

$33.28

PnL

-$2.92

Record

38%

1328-2178 (3506)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$15.65

Value

$25

PnL

+$9.35

Record

52%

2502-2335 (4837)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$16.45

Value

$35

PnL

+$18.55

Record

48%

1156-1258 (2414)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$12.32

Value

—

PnL

-$9.43

Record

60%

3515-2365 (5880)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$14.32

Value

—

PnL

-$14.32

Record

46%

1397-1625 (3022)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$10.92

Value

—

PnL

-$10.92

Record

52%

4903-4599 (9502)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$8.74

Value

$12.28

PnL

+$3.54

Record

67%

3205-1601 (4806)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$7.85

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$2.23

Record

49%

2245-2302 (4547)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$7.66

Value

—

PnL

-$7.66

Record

38%

597-969 (1566)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$6.58

Value

$14

PnL

+$7.42

Record

58%

4936-3607 (8543)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$6.38

Value

$13.46

PnL

+$7.08

Record

51%

916-874 (1790)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.48

PnL

-$0.12

Record

64%

2251-1263 (3514)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 25 top traders (72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x79e589d3...6f25ad

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794662700

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.0K

+$55.66

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

CTR

Up — $0

-$972.22

soswald1

Down — $619.74

+$48.83

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $612

+$93.1

ByteBadger92

Down — $497.01

+$7.6

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$44.23

hoodquant

Down — $144

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Arbitrage — excluded

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$1.43

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