Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Down 72%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
-$85.13
Smart Money Signal
18 of 25 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$3.67 | 62% 421-262 (683) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $675.23 | $1.4K | +$702.89 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $686.09 | — | -$699.23 | |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $753.9 | $744 | +$20.11 | 51% 3170-3070 (6240) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $611.08 | $618.16 | +$7.08 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $505.8 | $500 | +$9.6 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 24.7¢ | $182.43 | — | -$148.43 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $128.56 | $143.83 | +$15.27 | 50% 2996-2942 (5938) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $67.89 | $90 | +$22.11 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 93.9¢ | $63.9 | $68.04 | +$4.14 | 38% 1328-2178 (3506) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $51.5 | $48.66 | -$2.84 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 66.3¢ | $38.13 | — | -$38.13 | 50% 1805-1780 (3585) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $25.59 | $35.88 | +$10.29 | 54% 2198-1898 (4096) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $32.38 | $32.41 | +$0.03 | 51% 1315-1249 (2564) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 63.8¢ | $17.7 | $25 | +$7.3 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 36.4¢ | $4.53 | $12.43 | +$7.9 | 46% 1397-1625 (3022) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 95.2¢ | $10.53 | $11.07 | +$0.54 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $10.8 | — | -$10.8 | 71% 1495-608 (2103) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $7.8 | $10 | +$2.2 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $8.8 | $20 | +$11.2 | 47% 1973-2229 (4202) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $11.04 | $12 | +$0.96 | 42% 1520-2127 (3647) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $9.06 | — | -$9.06 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $7.65 | $10 | +$2.35 | 52% 2502-2335 (4837) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $1.6 | $5 | +$3.4 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $4.25 | — | -$4.25 | 60% 3515-2365 (5880) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $5 | +$0.55 | 64% 2251-1263 (3514) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $55.13 | — | +$3.44 | 46% 2602-3088 (5690) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3.67
Record
62%
421-262 (683)
Both legs:
Invested
$753.9
Value
$744
PnL
+$20.11
Record
51%
3170-3070 (6240)
Invested
$611.08
Value
$618.16
PnL
+$7.08
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
Invested
$505.8
Value
$500
PnL
+$9.6
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Invested
$182.43
Value
—
PnL
-$148.43
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
Invested
$128.56
Value
$143.83
PnL
+$15.27
Record
50%
2996-2942 (5938)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$67.89
Value
$90
PnL
+$22.11
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$63.9
Value
$68.04
PnL
+$4.14
Record
38%
1328-2178 (3506)
Invested
$51.5
Value
$48.66
PnL
-$2.84
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Invested
$38.13
Value
—
PnL
-$38.13
Record
50%
1805-1780 (3585)
Invested
$25.59
Value
$35.88
PnL
+$10.29
Record
54%
2198-1898 (4096)
Invested
$32.38
Value
$32.41
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
1315-1249 (2564)
Invested
$17.7
Value
$25
PnL
+$7.3
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Invested
$4.53
Value
$12.43
PnL
+$7.9
Record
46%
1397-1625 (3022)
Invested
$10.53
Value
$11.07
PnL
+$0.54
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
—
PnL
-$10.8
Record
71%
1495-608 (2103)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.2
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$11.2
Record
47%
1973-2229 (4202)
Invested
$11.04
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.96
Record
42%
1520-2127 (3647)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$9.06
Value
—
PnL
-$9.06
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.65
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.35
Record
52%
2502-2335 (4837)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.4
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$4.25
Value
—
PnL
-$4.25
Record
60%
3515-2365 (5880)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.55
Record
64%
2251-1263 (3514)
Invested
$55.13
Value
—
PnL
+$3.44
Record
46%
2602-3088 (5690)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Down — $744
hoodquant
Down — $618.16
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $143.83
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $90
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $68.04
asdcaxz
Down — $48.66
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0