Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Signal

13 of 29 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,373

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Down16 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,138

Combined PnL+$288.75

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.2K	62% 421-262 (683)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 45.2¢	$397.71	$625.02	+$233.49	50% 2116-2116 (4232)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$750	—	-$619.91	51% 3170-3070 (6240)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$528.11	$501.24	+$5.45	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$250.32	$501.24	+$255.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$250.32	—	-$249.82
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$358.71	$325.37	-$33.34	50% 2996-2942 (5938)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$199.08	$325.37	+$126.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$159.63	—	-$159.63
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 69.5¢	$142.69	$114.36	-$27.79	49% 4271-4363 (8634)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 44.8¢	$105.88	—	-$104.3	52% 4903-4599 (9502)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$62.73	$54.79	-$7.05	46% 1397-1625 (3022)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 61.9¢	$57.89	$54.63	-$3.26	47% 2017-2278 (4295)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$57.69	—	-$57.69	50% 1805-1780 (3585)
SU suntori	Downavg 53¢	$140.82	$44.09	+$71.06	46% 2602-3088 (5690)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$42.93	$50	+$7.07	71% 1495-608 (2103)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$58.85	$36.41	-$7.24	47% 1973-2229 (4202)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 14.2¢	$29.13	—	-$19.47	44% 1940-2509 (4449)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 69.5¢	$110.89	$35	-$8.05	52% 2098-1948 (4046)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$44.24	—	-$38.94	60% 3515-2365 (5880)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 66¢	$37.37	$23.67	-$4.34	49% 2245-2302 (4547)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 38.7¢	$20.56	—	-$20.56	47% 1952-2164 (4116)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$13.56	$25.94	+$12.38	37% 1289-2149 (3438)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 58.2¢	$12.2	$12	+$0.25	64% 2251-1263 (3514)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$18.6	$11.9	-$1.66	67% 3205-1601 (4806)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 62.7¢	$7.52	$12	+$4.48	42% 1520-2127 (3647)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 45.3¢	$6.8	$15	+$8.2	48% 1156-1258 (2414)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 84¢	$8.25	—	-$8.25	52% 2502-2335 (4837)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 57¢	$6.27	$11	+$4.73	58% 4936-3607 (8543)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

62%

421-262 (683)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$397.71

Value

$625.02

PnL

+$233.49

Record

50%

2116-2116 (4232)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$750

Value

—

PnL

-$619.91

Record

51%

3170-3070 (6240)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$528.11

Value

$501.24

PnL

+$5.45

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

Both legs:

Down$250.3249.9¢+$255.27

Up$250.3249.9¢-$249.82

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$358.71

Value

$325.37

PnL

-$33.34

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

Both legs:

Down$199.0861.2¢+$126.29

Up$159.6349.8¢-$159.63

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$142.69

Value

$114.36

PnL

-$27.79

Record

49%

4271-4363 (8634)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$105.88

Value

—

PnL

-$104.3

Record

52%

4903-4599 (9502)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$62.73

Value

$54.79

PnL

-$7.05

Record

46%

1397-1625 (3022)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$57.89

Value

$54.63

PnL

-$3.26

Record

47%

2017-2278 (4295)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$57.69

Value

—

PnL

-$57.69

Record

50%

1805-1780 (3585)

suntori

Down

Invested

$140.82

Value

$44.09

PnL

+$71.06

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$42.93

Value

$50

PnL

+$7.07

Record

71%

1495-608 (2103)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$58.85

Value

$36.41

PnL

-$7.24

Record

47%

1973-2229 (4202)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$29.13

Value

—

PnL

-$19.47

Record

44%

1940-2509 (4449)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$110.89

Value

$35

PnL

-$8.05

Record

52%

2098-1948 (4046)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$44.24

Value

—

PnL

-$38.94

Record

60%

3515-2365 (5880)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$37.37

Value

$23.67

PnL

-$4.34

Record

49%

2245-2302 (4547)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$20.56

Value

—

PnL

-$20.56

Record

47%

1952-2164 (4116)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$13.56

Value

$25.94

PnL

+$12.38

Record

37%

1289-2149 (3438)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$12.2

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.25

Record

64%

2251-1263 (3514)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$18.6

Value

$11.9

PnL

-$1.66

Record

67%

3205-1601 (4806)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$7.52

Value

$12

PnL

+$4.48

Record

42%

1520-2127 (3647)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$6.8

Value

$15

PnL

+$8.2

Record

48%

1156-1258 (2414)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$8.25

Value

—

PnL

-$8.25

Record

52%

2502-2335 (4837)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$6.27

Value

$11

PnL

+$4.73

Record

58%

4936-3607 (8543)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 29 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa7a52fd5...2193f7

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794661500

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.2K

uninformedfloww

Down — $625.02

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$33.34

asdcaxz

Down — $114.36

-$27.79

blue.birds

CTR

Up — $0

-$104.3

rabadabadoo

Down — $54.79

-$7.05

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $54.63

-$3.26

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$57.69

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