Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 57%
2 arb excluded
$2.8K
$172.98
Smart Money Signal
13 of 23 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$3.54 | 62% 421-262 (683) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $689.97 | $1.4K | +$698.89 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $690.05 | — | -$695.34 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 41.3¢ | $247.82 | $599.55 | +$351.73 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $507.16 | $495.87 | +$4.89 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $247.55 | $495.87 | +$252.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $247.62 | — | -$247.22 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $128.7 | $130 | +$1.3 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 59.7¢ | $105.27 | $106.23 | +$0.96 | 50% 2996-2942 (5938) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.9¢ | $33.71 | — | -$33.71 | 54% 2198-1898 (4096) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.2¢ | $66.97 | — | -$65.17 | 51% 3170-3070 (6240) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.5¢ | $35.07 | — | -$35.07 | 50% 1805-1780 (3585) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.5¢ | $33.95 | — | -$33.95 | 49% 4271-4363 (8634) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $13.57 | $20.58 | +$7.01 | 52% 4903-4599 (9502) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 83.4¢ | $18.52 | $20.37 | +$1.85 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $10.2 | $16.04 | +$5.84 | 46% 1397-1625 (3022) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 94.3¢ | $10.59 | $11.23 | +$0.64 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 26.3¢ | $18.43 | — | -$10.29 | 47% 2017-2278 (4295) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 14.3¢ | $8.51 | — | -$8.51 | 47% 1973-2229 (4202) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $8 | $20 | +$12 | 48% 1156-1258 (2414) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $5.88 | $6 | +$0.12 | 64% 2251-1263 (3514) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $3.2 | $5 | +$1.8 | 47% 1952-2164 (4116) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $11.9 | $5 | +$3 | 52% 2098-1948 (4046) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $5 | +$1.3 | 52% 2502-2335 (4837) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 11.4¢ | $8.58 | — | -$8.58 | 32% 974-2040 (3014) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $5 | +$2.55 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.1¢ | $11.35 | — | -$10.15 | 60% 3515-2365 (5880) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.8¢ | $9.06 | — | -$9.06 | 38% 1328-2178 (3506) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3.54
Record
62%
421-262 (683)
Both legs:
Invested
$247.82
Value
$599.55
PnL
+$351.73
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
Invested
$507.16
Value
$495.87
PnL
+$4.89
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Both legs:
Invested
$128.7
Value
$130
PnL
+$1.3
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
Invested
$105.27
Value
$106.23
PnL
+$0.96
Record
50%
2996-2942 (5938)
Invested
$33.71
Value
—
PnL
-$33.71
Record
54%
2198-1898 (4096)
Invested
$66.97
Value
—
PnL
-$65.17
Record
51%
3170-3070 (6240)
Invested
$35.07
Value
—
PnL
-$35.07
Record
50%
1805-1780 (3585)
Invested
$33.95
Value
—
PnL
-$33.95
Record
49%
4271-4363 (8634)
Invested
$13.57
Value
$20.58
PnL
+$7.01
Record
52%
4903-4599 (9502)
Invested
$18.52
Value
$20.37
PnL
+$1.85
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$16.04
PnL
+$5.84
Record
46%
1397-1625 (3022)
Invested
$10.59
Value
$11.23
PnL
+$0.64
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
Invested
$18.43
Value
—
PnL
-$10.29
Record
47%
2017-2278 (4295)
Invested
$8.51
Value
—
PnL
-$8.51
Record
47%
1973-2229 (4202)
Invested
$8
Value
$20
PnL
+$12
Record
48%
1156-1258 (2414)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.12
Record
64%
2251-1263 (3514)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.8
Record
47%
1952-2164 (4116)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$11.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$3
Record
52%
2098-1948 (4046)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.3
Record
52%
2502-2335 (4837)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$8.58
Value
—
PnL
-$8.58
Record
32%
974-2040 (3014)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.55
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$11.35
Value
—
PnL
-$10.15
Record
60%
3515-2365 (5880)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$9.06
Value
—
PnL
-$9.06
Record
38%
1328-2178 (3506)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $599.55
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $130
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $106.23
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $20.58