Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Down (68%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$18.43

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 100¢

+91% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,681

Combined PnL+$36.51

Up6 traders

Total Value$514.97

Total Shares885

Combined PnL-$18.08

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0.22	62% 416-256 (672)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3248-2750 (5998)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$51.21	$60.3	+$9.08	51% 2975-2913 (5888)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$27.67	$32.92	+$5.25	60% 3496-2347 (5843)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 64¢	$43.82	$30	+$1.55	52% 2078-1939 (4017)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 93¢	$19.17	$19.46	+$0.28	38% 1317-2163 (3480)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 48¢	$9.33	$14.99	+$5.66	54% 2187-1881 (4068)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 59.7¢	$12.53	$10.61	-$1.92	50% 1794-1769 (3563)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$8.56	$9.23	+$0.67	51% 3148-3049 (6197)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 48¢	$8.91	$9.1	+$4.38	46% 1383-1617 (3000)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 40¢	$2.8	$7	+$4.2	47% 1960-2212 (4172)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 39¢	$2.99	$6.9	+$3.91	52% 4886-4583 (9469)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 94¢	$5.64	$5.73	+$0.09	67% 3205-1601 (4806)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 90¢	$4.5	$5	+$0.5	63% 3794-2264 (6058)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$5.4	$3.78	-$1.62	50% 2099-2099 (4198)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 42¢	$0.84	$2	+$1.16	48% 1943-2144 (4087)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 7.8¢	$2.47	$0.47	-$2	52% 2488-2319 (4807)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 4.1¢	$6.74	$0.08	-$6.65	42% 1499-2108 (3607)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 9.8¢	$5.92	$0.03	-$5.89	49% 4251-4347 (8598)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0.22

Record

62%

416-256 (672)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3248-2750 (5998)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$51.21

Value

$60.3

PnL

+$9.08

Record

51%

2975-2913 (5888)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$27.67

Value

$32.92

PnL

+$5.25

Record

60%

3496-2347 (5843)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$43.82

Value

$30

PnL

+$1.55

Record

52%

2078-1939 (4017)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$19.17

Value

$19.46

PnL

+$0.28

Record

38%

1317-2163 (3480)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$9.33

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$5.66

Record

54%

2187-1881 (4068)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$12.53

Value

$10.61

PnL

-$1.92

Record

50%

1794-1769 (3563)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$8.56

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$0.67

Record

51%

3148-3049 (6197)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$8.91

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$4.38

Record

46%

1383-1617 (3000)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$2.8

Value

PnL

+$4.2

Record

47%

1960-2212 (4172)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$2.99

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$3.91

Record

52%

4886-4583 (9469)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.73

PnL

+$0.09

Record

67%

3205-1601 (4806)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$4.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

63%

3794-2264 (6058)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$1.62

Record

50%

2099-2099 (4198)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$0.84

Value

PnL

+$1.16

Record

48%

1943-2144 (4087)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.47

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$2

Record

52%

2488-2319 (4807)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$6.74

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$6.65

Record

42%

1499-2108 (3607)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.89

Record

49%

4251-4347 (8598)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.