Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 52%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$183.85
Smart Money Signal
11 of 21 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$3.82 | 62% 416-256 (672) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $721.38 | $1.4K | +$729.07 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $732.92 | — | -$732.89 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $505.77 | $492.27 | -$5.14 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $246.27 | $492.27 | +$247.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $251.58 | — | -$252.34 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 32.5¢ | $118.74 | — | -$109.14 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 71.7¢ | $97.26 | $115.64 | +$18.38 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $46.24 | $46.71 | +$0.47 | 98% 3400-72 (3472) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 40.7¢ | $19.13 | $29 | +$9.87 | 48% 1943-2144 (4087) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $34.7 | — | -$34.7 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $17.45 | $20.47 | +$2.11 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $86.03 | $15.25 | -$14.4 | 54% 2187-1881 (4068) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $13.7 | $15.21 | +$1.51 | 48% 1389-1500 (2889) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.1¢ | $18.97 | — | -$12.47 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $8.21 | $12.63 | +$4.42 | 60% 3496-2347 (5843) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 28.9¢ | $14.87 | — | -$14.87 | 47% 1960-2212 (4172) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.9¢ | $22.92 | — | -$9.37 | 46% 1383-1617 (3000) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 85.9¢ | $12.13 | $7 | +$0.39 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $7.71 | $6 | -$1.71 | 52% 2488-2319 (4807) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.8¢ | $21.4 | — | -$19.15 | 51% 3148-3049 (6197) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $5 | +$2.9 | 51% 909-867 (1776) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.5¢ | $2.68 | — | -$2.68 | 47% 2004-2262 (4266) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $1.44 | — | -$1.44 | 42% 1499-2108 (3607) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.6¢ | $7.59 | — | -$2.19 | 44% 1926-2494 (4420) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 50% 2099-2099 (4198) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.6 | — | -$0.6 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$3.82
Record
62%
416-256 (672)
Both legs:
Invested
$505.77
Value
$492.27
PnL
-$5.14
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.74
Value
—
PnL
-$109.14
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$97.26
Value
$115.64
PnL
+$18.38
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$46.24
Value
$46.71
PnL
+$0.47
Record
98%
3400-72 (3472)
ohioism<$100Invested
$19.13
Value
$29
PnL
+$9.87
Record
48%
1943-2144 (4087)
Invested
$34.7
Value
—
PnL
-$34.7
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
Invested
$17.45
Value
$20.47
PnL
+$2.11
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$86.03
Value
$15.25
PnL
-$14.4
Record
54%
2187-1881 (4068)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$13.7
Value
$15.21
PnL
+$1.51
Record
48%
1389-1500 (2889)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$18.97
Value
—
PnL
-$12.47
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
Invested
$8.21
Value
$12.63
PnL
+$4.42
Record
60%
3496-2347 (5843)
Invested
$14.87
Value
—
PnL
-$14.87
Record
47%
1960-2212 (4172)
Invested
$22.92
Value
—
PnL
-$9.37
Record
46%
1383-1617 (3000)
Invested
$12.13
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.39
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.71
Value
$6
PnL
-$1.71
Record
52%
2488-2319 (4807)
Invested
$21.4
Value
—
PnL
-$19.15
Record
51%
3148-3049 (6197)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.9
Record
51%
909-867 (1776)
Invested
$2.68
Value
—
PnL
-$2.68
Record
47%
2004-2262 (4266)
Invested
$1.44
Value
—
PnL
-$1.44
Record
42%
1499-2108 (3607)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$7.59
Value
—
PnL
-$2.19
Record
44%
1926-2494 (4420)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
50%
2099-2099 (4198)
Invested
$0.6
Value
—
PnL
-$0.6
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $115.64
hoodquant
Up — $46.71
ohioism
Up — $29
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $20.47
ply-pm2
Up — $15.25
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $15.21