Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
18
Up 33%
4 arb excluded
$3.1K
-$62.41
Smart Money Signal
6 of 18 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$0.76 | 62% 416-256 (672) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $697.19 | — | -$672.48 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $699.27 | $1.4K | +$673.24 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $738.49 | +$66.66 | 51% 3148-3049 (6197) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $322.02 | — | -$298.92 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $369.24 | $738.49 | +$365.58 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $508.76 | $495 | +$9.6 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $246.18 | — | -$241.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $242.73 | $495 | +$251.4 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 75.9¢ | $157.21 | — | -$151.75 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $122.27 | $112.89 | -$9.38 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.7¢ | $106.53 | — | -$106.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 13.9¢ | $15.74 | $112.89 | +$97.15 | |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 10.6¢ | $8.16 | $77 | +$68.84 | 44% 1926-2494 (4420) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 40.3¢ | $68.33 | — | -$68.33 | 54% 2187-1881 (4068) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 54.6¢ | $125.92 | $55 | -$4.57 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 9.2¢ | $4.46 | $48.71 | +$44.25 | 38% 1317-2163 (3480) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $37.79 | — | -$37.79 | 46% 1383-1617 (3000) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 21.8¢ | $6.55 | $30 | +$23.45 | 52% 2488-2319 (4807) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $8.85 | $15 | +$6.15 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $16.93 | $29.99 | +$13.07 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 84.7¢ | $13.57 | — | -$13.57 | 64% 2251-1263 (3514) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 85.2¢ | $12.26 | — | -$12.26 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 45.1¢ | $14.05 | $21.29 | +$7.24 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $6.77 | — | -$6.77 | 47% 1960-2212 (4172) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 8.1¢ | $3.32 | $40.83 | +$37.51 | 32% 965-2025 (2990) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $5 | +$1.5 | 48% 1943-2144 (4087) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 22.9¢ | $3.67 | $16 | +$12.33 | 47% 2004-2262 (4266) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $2.1 | $15 | +$12.9 | 71% 1474-604 (2078) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 5.6¢ | $0.32 | $5.71 | +$5.39 | 42% 1499-2108 (3607) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0.76
Record
62%
416-256 (672)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
$738.49
PnL
+$66.66
Record
51%
3148-3049 (6197)
Both legs:
Invested
$508.76
Value
$495
PnL
+$9.6
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Both legs:
Invested
$157.21
Value
—
PnL
-$151.75
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$122.27
Value
$112.89
PnL
-$9.38
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Both legs:
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$8.16
Value
$77
PnL
+$68.84
Record
44%
1926-2494 (4420)
Invested
$68.33
Value
—
PnL
-$68.33
Record
54%
2187-1881 (4068)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$125.92
Value
$55
PnL
-$4.57
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.46
Value
$48.71
PnL
+$44.25
Record
38%
1317-2163 (3480)
Invested
$37.79
Value
—
PnL
-$37.79
Record
46%
1383-1617 (3000)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.55
Value
$30
PnL
+$23.45
Record
52%
2488-2319 (4807)
Invested
$8.85
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.15
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$16.93
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$13.07
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
Invested
$13.57
Value
—
PnL
-$13.57
Record
64%
2251-1263 (3514)
Invested
$12.26
Value
—
PnL
-$12.26
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
Invested
$14.05
Value
$21.29
PnL
+$7.24
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
Invested
$6.77
Value
—
PnL
-$6.77
Record
47%
1960-2212 (4172)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$3.32
Value
$40.83
PnL
+$37.51
Record
32%
965-2025 (2990)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
48%
1943-2144 (4087)
Invested
$3.67
Value
$16
PnL
+$12.33
Record
47%
2004-2262 (4266)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$15
PnL
+$12.9
Record
71%
1474-604 (2078)
Invested
$0.32
Value
$5.71
PnL
+$5.39
Record
42%
1499-2108 (3607)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $77
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $55
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $48.71
rabadabadoo
CTRUp — $0