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Consensus Lost βœ—

Smart money consensus was Up β€” but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

πŸ’€

Lost

Consensus Traders

18

Up 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$736.97

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares936
Combined PnL-$882.53
Down9 traders
Total Value$368.81
Total Shares369
Combined PnL+$145.56
Up β€” 50%Down β€” 50%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100
Up

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$19.29

Record

62%

416-256 (672)

Both legs:

Down$712.2550Β’+$708.99
Up$731.5450Β’-$728.28
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$511.39

Value

β€”

PnL

-$486

Record

54%

3248-2750 (5998)

SO
soswald1
Down

Invested

$50.81

Value

$139.98

PnL

+$94.03

Record

51%

3148-3049 (6197)

BL
blue.birdsCTR
Up

Invested

$150.95

Value

β€”

PnL

-$147.47

Record

52%

4886-4583 (9469)

PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$94.2

Value

$95.24

PnL

+$1.04

Record

54%

2187-1881 (4068)

Both legs:

Down$28.2429.7Β’+$67
Up$65.9558.9Β’-$65.95
AS
asdcaxzCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$97.66

Value

β€”

PnL

-$92.45

Record

49%

4251-4347 (8598)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$75.77

Value

$76.54

PnL

+$0.77

Record

98%

3400-72 (3472)

ohioism<$100
Down

Invested

$8.85

Value

$45

PnL

+$36.15

Record

48%

1943-2144 (4087)

RA
rabadabadooCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$46.2

Value

β€”

PnL

-$44.97

Record

46%

1383-1617 (3000)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$43.63

Value

β€”

PnL

-$43.63

Record

47%

2004-2262 (4266)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$55.31

Value

β€”

PnL

-$37.3

Record

52%

2078-1939 (4017)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$50.57

Value

$37

PnL

-$10.89

Record

63%

3794-2264 (6058)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$29.8

Value

$27.74

PnL

-$2.06

Record

60%

3496-2347 (5843)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$4.58

Value

$11.56

PnL

+$6.98

Record

49%

2245-2302 (4547)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$11.9

Value

β€”

PnL

-$11.9

Record

67%

3205-1601 (4806)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$6.75

Value

β€”

PnL

-$6.75

Record

52%

2488-2319 (4807)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$12.06

Value

β€”

PnL

-$12.06

Record

50%

1794-1769 (3563)

G-Penis-Monster<$100
Down

Invested

$6.75

Value

$20

PnL

+$13.25

Record

44%

1926-2494 (4420)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100
Down

Invested

$1.86

Value

$6

PnL

+$4.14

Record

42%

1499-2108 (3607)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$1.8

Value

$5

PnL

+$3.2

Record

64%

2251-1263 (3514)