Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
18
Up 50%
2 arb excluded
$1.9K
-$736.97
Smart Money Signal
9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$19.29 | 62% 416-256 (672) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $712.25 | $1.4K | +$708.99 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $731.54 | β | -$728.28 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.4Β’ | $511.39 | β | -$486 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 26.7Β’ | $50.81 | $139.98 | +$94.03 | 51% 3148-3049 (6197) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 63.9Β’ | $150.95 | β | -$147.47 | 52% 4886-4583 (9469) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 58.9Β’ | $94.2 | $95.24 | +$1.04 | 54% 2187-1881 (4068) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 29.7Β’ | $28.24 | $95.24 | +$67 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 58.9Β’ | $65.95 | β | -$65.95 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.6Β’ | $97.66 | β | -$92.45 | 49% 4251-4347 (8598) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $75.77 | $76.54 | +$0.77 | 98% 3400-72 (3472) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Downavg 19.7Β’ | $8.85 | $45 | +$36.15 | 48% 1943-2144 (4087) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 55Β’ | $46.2 | β | -$44.97 | 46% 1383-1617 (3000) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 67Β’ | $43.63 | β | -$43.63 | 47% 2004-2262 (4266) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.1Β’ | $55.31 | β | -$37.3 | 52% 2078-1939 (4017) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 76.8Β’ | $50.57 | $37 | -$10.89 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 58.8Β’ | $29.8 | $27.74 | -$2.06 | 60% 3496-2347 (5843) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 30.3Β’ | $4.58 | $11.56 | +$6.98 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 76.3Β’ | $11.9 | β | -$11.9 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 67.5Β’ | $6.75 | β | -$6.75 | 52% 2488-2319 (4807) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 67Β’ | $12.06 | β | -$12.06 | 50% 1794-1769 (3563) |
![]() G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 33.8Β’ | $6.75 | $20 | +$13.25 | 44% 1926-2494 (4420) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 31Β’ | $1.86 | $6 | +$4.14 | 42% 1499-2108 (3607) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 36Β’ | $1.8 | $5 | +$3.2 | 64% 2251-1263 (3514) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$19.29
Record
62%
416-256 (672)
Both legs:
Invested
$511.39
Value
β
PnL
-$486
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Invested
$50.81
Value
$139.98
PnL
+$94.03
Record
51%
3148-3049 (6197)
Invested
$150.95
Value
β
PnL
-$147.47
Record
52%
4886-4583 (9469)
Invested
$94.2
Value
$95.24
PnL
+$1.04
Record
54%
2187-1881 (4068)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.66
Value
β
PnL
-$92.45
Record
49%
4251-4347 (8598)
Invested
$75.77
Value
$76.54
PnL
+$0.77
Record
98%
3400-72 (3472)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.85
Value
$45
PnL
+$36.15
Record
48%
1943-2144 (4087)
Invested
$46.2
Value
β
PnL
-$44.97
Record
46%
1383-1617 (3000)
Invested
$43.63
Value
β
PnL
-$43.63
Record
47%
2004-2262 (4266)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$55.31
Value
β
PnL
-$37.3
Record
52%
2078-1939 (4017)
Invested
$50.57
Value
$37
PnL
-$10.89
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$29.8
Value
$27.74
PnL
-$2.06
Record
60%
3496-2347 (5843)
Invested
$4.58
Value
$11.56
PnL
+$6.98
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
Invested
$11.9
Value
β
PnL
-$11.9
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$6.75
Value
β
PnL
-$6.75
Record
52%
2488-2319 (4807)
Invested
$12.06
Value
β
PnL
-$12.06
Record
50%
1794-1769 (3563)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$6.75
Value
$20
PnL
+$13.25
Record
44%
1926-2494 (4420)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$6
PnL
+$4.14
Record
42%
1499-2108 (3607)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.2
Record
64%
2251-1263 (3514)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp β $0
soswald1
Down β $139.98
blue.birds
CTRUp β $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
asdcaxz
CTRUp β $0
hoodquant
Down β $76.54

ohioism
Down β $45
rabadabadoo
CTRUp β $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp β $0