Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 63¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up38¢Down62¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$2.79

Research grade

NeutralDown at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up38%

Down63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$108.62

Total Shares197

Combined PnL-$4.49

Up4 traders

Total Value$125.59

Total Shares193

Combined PnL+$1.69

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$4.11	62% 409-250 (659)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$715.11	$779.47	+$60.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$714.72	$650.4	-$56.78
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$753.25	$733.06	-$5.19	51% 3131-3018 (6149)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$364.47	$403.76	+$35.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$370	$329.3	-$40.9
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$503.7	$496.1	-$1.2	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$340.55	+$96.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$253.7	$155.55	-$98.15
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 34.1¢	$99.85	$100.49	+$7.94	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.1¢	$51.85	$63.16	+$11.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 64¢	$40.83	$37.32	-$3.38
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 53.2¢	$70.33	$63.25	-$4.92	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 71.7¢	$44.54	$40.85	-$3.69	47% 1993-2245 (4238)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 53.2¢	$29.25	$38.22	+$8.97	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$35.05	$30.8	-$4.25	50% 1772-1760 (3532)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$15.06	$15.72	+$0.66	38% 584-952 (1536)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 38¢	$11.4	$12.45	+$1.05	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$7.6	$9	+$1.4	46% 1371-1603 (2974)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 48.4¢	$9.58	$8.22	-$1.37	37% 1273-2122 (3395)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 40.7¢	$6.1	$6.23	+$0.13	44% 1915-2467 (4382)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 36.5¢	$5.75	$4.81	-$0.95	54% 2171-1861 (4032)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 41¢	$3.78	$3.82	+$0.05	47% 1950-2185 (4135)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 42¢	$0.72	$0.85	+$0.13	48% 1927-2124 (4051)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$4.11

Record

62%

409-250 (659)

Both legs:

Down$715.1150¢+$60.88

Up$714.7250¢-$56.78

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$753.25

Value

$733.06

PnL

-$5.19

Record

51%

3131-3018 (6149)

Both legs:

Down$364.4750.1¢+$35.71

Up$37050¢-$40.9

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$503.7

Value

$496.1

PnL

-$1.2

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Both legs:

Up$24550¢+$96.95

Down$253.749.7¢-$98.15

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$99.85

Value

$100.49

PnL

+$7.94

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

Both legs:

Down$51.8534.1¢+$11.31

Up$40.8364¢-$3.38

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$70.33

Value

$63.25

PnL

-$4.92

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$44.54

Value

$40.85

PnL

-$3.69

Record

47%

1993-2245 (4238)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$29.25

Value

$38.22

PnL

+$8.97

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$35.05

Value

$30.8

PnL

-$4.25

Record

50%

1772-1760 (3532)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$15.06

Value

$15.72

PnL

+$0.66

Record

38%

584-952 (1536)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$11.4

Value

$12.45

PnL

+$1.05

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$7.6

Value

PnL

+$1.4

Record

46%

1371-1603 (2974)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$9.58

Value

$8.22

PnL

-$1.37

Record

37%

1273-2122 (3395)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$6.1

Value

$6.23

PnL

+$0.13

Record

44%

1915-2467 (4382)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$5.75

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.95

Record

54%

2171-1861 (4032)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$3.78

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

1950-2185 (4135)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

1927-2124 (4051)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.1%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.