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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Down 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,645

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Up9 traders

Total Value$571.09

Total Shares571

Combined PnL+$59.02

Down — 36%Up — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	62% 409-250 (659)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$506.92	$498.98	+$0.16	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$250.99	$498.98	+$250.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 76.9¢	$195.72	$200.43	+$4.71	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 73.3¢	$115.45	$142.21	+$31.27	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$71.25	$72.7	+$1.45	98% 3371-72 (3443)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 61.7¢	$60.4	$65.12	+$4.72	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 69.7¢	$42.7	$49.78	+$7.08	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$26.39	$33.27	+$6.88	46% 1371-1603 (2974)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$17.5	—	-$17.5	50% 1772-1760 (3532)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 28.2¢	$32.22	—	-$25.72	51% 3131-3018 (6149)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 69¢	$3.45	$5	+$1.55	44% 1915-2467 (4382)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 44¢	$1	$2.27	+$1.27	47% 1993-2245 (4238)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 72¢	$0.22	$0.31	+$0.09	60% 3476-2322 (5798)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 17.6¢	$5.05	—	-$5.05	52% 2477-2289 (4766)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$51.85	—	-$7.09	54% 2171-1861 (4032)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

62%

409-250 (659)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$506.92

Value

$498.98

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Both legs:

Up$250.9950.3¢+$250.16

Down$25050¢-$250

uninformedfloww

Invested

$195.72

Value

$200.43

PnL

+$4.71

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

Invested

$115.45

Value

$142.21

PnL

+$31.27

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

Invested

$71.25

Value

$72.7

PnL

+$1.45

Record

98%

3371-72 (3443)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$60.4

Value

$65.12

PnL

+$4.72

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$42.7

Value

$49.78

PnL

+$7.08

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$26.39

Value

$33.27

PnL

+$6.88

Record

46%

1371-1603 (2974)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$17.5

Value

—

PnL

-$17.5

Record

50%

1772-1760 (3532)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$32.22

Value

—

PnL

-$25.72

Record

51%

3131-3018 (6149)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.55

Record

44%

1915-2467 (4382)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$1

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$1.27

Record

47%

1993-2245 (4238)

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.09

Record

60%

3476-2322 (5798)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

—

PnL

-$5.05

Record

52%

2477-2289 (4766)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$51.85

Value

—

PnL

-$7.09

Record

54%

2171-1861 (4032)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 14 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x92c1ea32...51bfc5

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794655500

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $200.43

asdcaxz

Up — $142.21

hoodquant

Up — $72.7

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $65.12

blue.birds

Up — $49.78

rabadabadoo

Up — $33.27

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

soswald1

Down — $0

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