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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Down 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$616.24

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,878

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Up7 traders

Total Value$116.24

Total Shares116

Combined PnL+$28.85

Down — 56%Up — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	62% 409-250 (659)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$507.75	$500	+$2.5	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$252.7	$500	+$250.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	—	-$247.8
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 85.3¢	$50.35	$46	-$3.25	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 19.5¢	$20.8	—	-$20.8	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$16.98	—	-$16.98	50% 1772-1760 (3532)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 31¢	$9.46	$30.5	+$21.05	44% 1915-2467 (4382)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 79¢	$14.35	$15	+$0.65	54% 2171-1861 (4032)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 13.5¢	$18.71	—	-$13.43	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 58.1¢	$15.52	$8.8	+$6.78	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.67	$5.94	+$1.27	46% 1371-1603 (2974)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 79¢	$5.29	$5	-$0.29	52% 2477-2289 (4766)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 47¢	$2.35	$5	+$2.65	47% 1950-2185 (4135)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$3	—	-$3	48% 1927-2124 (4051)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$0.2	—	-$0.2	32% 958-2010 (2968)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 21.1¢	$35.52	—	-$35.52	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 8.3¢	$3.51	—	-$3.51	38% 1307-2140 (3447)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 19.7¢	$4.54	—	-$4.54	51% 3131-3018 (6149)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

62%

409-250 (659)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$507.75

Value

$500

PnL

+$2.5

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Both legs:

Up$252.750.5¢+$250.3

Down$24550¢-$247.8

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$50.35

Value

$46

PnL

-$3.25

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

—

PnL

-$20.8

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$16.98

Value

—

PnL

-$16.98

Record

50%

1772-1760 (3532)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$9.46

Value

$30.5

PnL

+$21.05

Record

44%

1915-2467 (4382)

Invested

$14.35

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.65

Record

54%

2171-1861 (4032)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$18.71

Value

—

PnL

-$13.43

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$15.52

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$6.78

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$4.67

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$1.27

Record

46%

1371-1603 (2974)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$5.29

Value

$5

PnL

-$0.29

Record

52%

2477-2289 (4766)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.65

Record

47%

1950-2185 (4135)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$3

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

1927-2124 (4051)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.2

Value

—

PnL

-$0.2

Record

32%

958-2010 (2968)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$35.52

Value

—

PnL

-$35.52

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

—

PnL

-$3.51

Record

38%

1307-2140 (3447)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$4.54

Value

—

PnL

-$4.54

Record

51%

3131-3018 (6149)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc7415a3f...8269d8

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794654900

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $46

asdcaxz

Down — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $30.5

ply-pm2

Up — $15

blue.birds

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $8.8

rabadabadoo

Up — $5.94

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