Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 64%
$455.03
$-2.7K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 22 top traders (64%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 62% 409-250 (659) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$697.92 | 51% 3131-3018 (6149) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.9¢ | $505.38 | — | -$500.35 | 54% 3222-2710 (5932) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 49.1¢ | $147.75 | $169.18 | +$49.42 | 50% 2078-2073 (4151) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 75.2¢ | $100.02 | $97.82 | -$2.2 | 51% 2945-2881 (5826) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 84.9¢ | $75.62 | $71.57 | -$2.09 | 49% 4234-4320 (8554) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 71.8¢ | $58.05 | $55 | -$3.05 | 52% 4868-4560 (9428) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 66.5¢ | $58.14 | $30 | +$0.8 | 52% 2057-1924 (3981) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 63.1¢ | $28.97 | — | -$28.97 | 50% 1772-1760 (3532) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 86.5¢ | $26.85 | $9.57 | -$6.16 | 54% 2171-1861 (4032) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $10.2 | — | -$10.2 | 60% 3476-2322 (5798) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 76.3¢ | $10.28 | $7.34 | +$2.51 | 46% 2570-3056 (5626) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 46.7¢ | $6.8 | $14.55 | +$7.75 | 38% 584-952 (1536) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 18.7¢ | $6.55 | — | -$6.55 | 48% 1927-2124 (4051) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 24.9¢ | $11.34 | — | -$11.34 | 47% 1950-2185 (4135) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.1¢ | $6.94 | — | -$6.94 | 52% 2477-2289 (4766) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 12.4¢ | $2.93 | — | -$2.93 | 38% 1307-2140 (3447) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 6¢ | $0.21 | — | -$0.21 | 32% 958-2010 (2968) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $10.02 | — | -$10.02 | 47% 1993-2245 (4238) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.3¢ | $6.64 | — | -$6.64 | 46% 1371-1603 (2974) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.7¢ | $4.78 | — | -$4.78 | 44% 1915-2467 (4382) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 17.5¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 41% 1475-2082 (3557) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
62%
409-250 (659)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$697.92
Record
51%
3131-3018 (6149)
Invested
$505.38
Value
—
PnL
-$500.35
Record
54%
3222-2710 (5932)
Invested
$147.75
Value
$169.18
PnL
+$49.42
Record
50%
2078-2073 (4151)
Invested
$100.02
Value
$97.82
PnL
-$2.2
Record
51%
2945-2881 (5826)
Invested
$75.62
Value
$71.57
PnL
-$2.09
Record
49%
4234-4320 (8554)
Invested
$58.05
Value
$55
PnL
-$3.05
Record
52%
4868-4560 (9428)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$58.14
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.8
Record
52%
2057-1924 (3981)
Invested
$28.97
Value
—
PnL
-$28.97
Record
50%
1772-1760 (3532)
Invested
$26.85
Value
$9.57
PnL
-$6.16
Record
54%
2171-1861 (4032)
Invested
$10.2
Value
—
PnL
-$10.2
Record
60%
3476-2322 (5798)
Invested
$10.28
Value
$7.34
PnL
+$2.51
Record
46%
2570-3056 (5626)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$14.55
PnL
+$7.75
Record
38%
584-952 (1536)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$6.55
Value
—
PnL
-$6.55
Record
48%
1927-2124 (4051)
Invested
$11.34
Value
—
PnL
-$11.34
Record
47%
1950-2185 (4135)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$6.94
Value
—
PnL
-$6.94
Record
52%
2477-2289 (4766)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.93
Value
—
PnL
-$2.93
Record
38%
1307-2140 (3447)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.21
Value
—
PnL
-$0.21
Record
32%
958-2010 (2968)
Invested
$10.02
Value
—
PnL
-$10.02
Record
47%
1993-2245 (4238)
Invested
$6.64
Value
—
PnL
-$6.64
Record
46%
1371-1603 (2974)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$4.78
Value
—
PnL
-$4.78
Record
44%
1915-2467 (4382)
Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
41%
1475-2082 (3557)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $169.18
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $97.82
asdcaxz
Up — $71.57
blue.birds
Up — $55
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $30
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
Up — $9.57