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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

16

Up 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$1.25

Smart Money Signal

Up

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,560

Combined PnL+$85.07

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares171

Combined PnL-$83.82

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$3.55	62% 409-250 (659)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$750	$725	+$6.75	51% 3131-3018 (6149)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$510.34	$493.52	-$0.38	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$245.31	$493.52	+$249.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$249.44	—	-$250.15
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 61.4¢	$104.79	$136.94	+$50.93	49% 4234-4320 (8554)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 68.6¢	$127.37	$112.24	-$15.13	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 30.6¢	$77.13	—	-$61.74	52% 4868-4560 (9428)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 45.4¢	$29.02	$35	+$10.88	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 40.4¢	$29.24	$39.55	+$10.31	46% 1371-1603 (2974)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 70.2¢	$25.54	$23	-$2.54	54% 2171-1861 (4032)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$17.88	—	-$17.88	58% 4924-3594 (8518)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 49¢	$6.86	$14	+$7.14	71% 1465-598 (2063)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$7.37	$12	+$4.63	48% 1927-2124 (4051)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 65¢	$3.4	$5.23	+$1.83	38% 1307-2140 (3447)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 33¢	$1.98	$6	+$4.02	41% 1475-2082 (3557)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 46¢	$2.3	$5	+$2.7	47% 1993-2245 (4238)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$2.05	—	-$2.05	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 21.5¢	$2.15	—	-$2.15	52% 2477-2289 (4766)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$3.55

Record

62%

409-250 (659)

Invested

$750

Value

$725

PnL

+$6.75

Record

51%

3131-3018 (6149)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$510.34

Value

$493.52

PnL

-$0.38

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Both legs:

Up$245.3149.7¢+$249.77

Down$249.4449.4¢-$250.15

Invested

$104.79

Value

$136.94

PnL

+$50.93

Record

49%

4234-4320 (8554)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$127.37

Value

$112.24

PnL

-$15.13

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$77.13

Value

—

PnL

-$61.74

Record

52%

4868-4560 (9428)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$29.02

Value

$35

PnL

+$10.88

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$29.24

Value

$39.55

PnL

+$10.31

Record

46%

1371-1603 (2974)

Invested

$25.54

Value

$23

PnL

-$2.54

Record

54%

2171-1861 (4032)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$17.88

Value

—

PnL

-$17.88

Record

58%

4924-3594 (8518)

Invested

$6.86

Value

$14

PnL

+$7.14

Record

71%

1465-598 (2063)

Invested

$7.37

Value

$12

PnL

+$4.63

Record

48%

1927-2124 (4051)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$5.23

PnL

+$1.83

Record

38%

1307-2140 (3447)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$6

PnL

+$4.02

Record

41%

1475-2082 (3557)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.7

Record

47%

1993-2245 (4238)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

—

PnL

-$2.05

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

—

PnL

-$2.15

Record

52%

2477-2289 (4766)

Smart Money Signal

Up

12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x567fcdef...900934

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794653700

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $1.4K

soswald1

Up — $725

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Up — $136.94

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $112.24

blue.birds

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $35

rabadabadoo

Up — $39.55

ply-pm2

Up — $23

Hcrystallash

Down — $0

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