Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 65%
$659.63
$-2.2K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 20 top traders (65%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 63% 406-243 (649) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$721.35 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $510.24 | $508.98 | +$1.04 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $47.04 | $48 | +$0.96 | 98% 3348-72 (3420) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $38.58 | $30 | +$1.35 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $17.3 | $15 | -$2.3 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $16.66 | $28 | +$11.34 | 50% 1753-1753 (3506) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $12.89 | $14.65 | +$1.76 | 60% 3454-2312 (5766) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $9.9 | $15 | +$5.1 | 54% 2156-1847 (4003) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 38% 1297-2123 (3420) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.36 | — | -$1.36 | 32% 950-1996 (2946) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.8¢ | $1.68 | — | -$1.68 | 52% 2466-2274 (4740) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.36 | — | -$0.36 | 51% 1292-1224 (2516) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 12.6¢ | $1.51 | — | -$1.51 | 42% 1466-2059 (3525) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.4¢ | $10.52 | — | -$10.52 | 50% 2066-2059 (4125) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.1¢ | $13.66 | — | -$13.66 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $3.9 | — | -$3.9 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.4¢ | $7.67 | — | -$7.67 | 44% 1903-2453 (4356) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 47% 1944-2175 (4119) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.8¢ | $2.86 | — | -$2.86 | 46% 1358-1593 (2951) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
63%
406-243 (649)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$721.35
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
Invested
$510.24
Value
$508.98
PnL
+$1.04
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Invested
$47.04
Value
$48
PnL
+$0.96
Record
98%
3348-72 (3420)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$38.58
Value
$30
PnL
+$1.35
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
Invested
$17.3
Value
$15
PnL
-$2.3
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Invested
$16.66
Value
$28
PnL
+$11.34
Record
50%
1753-1753 (3506)
Invested
$12.89
Value
$14.65
PnL
+$1.76
Record
60%
3454-2312 (5766)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$15
PnL
+$5.1
Record
54%
2156-1847 (4003)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
38%
1297-2123 (3420)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.36
Value
—
PnL
-$1.36
Record
32%
950-1996 (2946)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
52%
2466-2274 (4740)
Invested
$0.36
Value
—
PnL
-$0.36
Record
51%
1292-1224 (2516)
Invested
$1.51
Value
—
PnL
-$1.51
Record
42%
1466-2059 (3525)
Invested
$10.52
Value
—
PnL
-$10.52
Record
50%
2066-2059 (4125)
Invested
$13.66
Value
—
PnL
-$13.66
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$3.9
Value
—
PnL
-$3.9
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$7.67
Value
—
PnL
-$7.67
Record
44%
1903-2453 (4356)
Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
47%
1944-2175 (4119)
Invested
$2.86
Value
—
PnL
-$2.86
Record
46%
1358-1593 (2951)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $508.98
hoodquant
Down — $48
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $30
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $15
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $28
aaa221
Down — $14.65
ply-pm2
Down — $15
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0