Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$248.73
$-2.0K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 20 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 63% 406-243 (649) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.6¢ | $510.55 | — | -$502.73 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 25.3¢ | $56.52 | $69.77 | +$13.25 | 50% 2066-2059 (4125) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31¢ | $21.63 | $69.77 | +$48.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 25.3¢ | $34.89 | — | -$34.89 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $63.36 | $69.61 | +$6.24 | 54% 2156-1847 (4003) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $21.75 | $43.89 | +$22.14 | 46% 2546-3015 (5561) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 62.6¢ | $40.06 | — | -$40.06 | 51% 896-852 (1748) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 16.8¢ | $30.98 | — | -$30.98 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.3¢ | $17.48 | — | -$17.48 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $17.5 | $17.96 | +$0.46 | 50% 1753-1753 (3506) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $8.52 | $12 | +$3.48 | 48% 1918-2109 (4027) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $4.97 | $16.57 | +$11.6 | 38% 581-947 (1528) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.3¢ | $10.75 | — | -$10.75 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $6.42 | $7.93 | +$1.51 | 60% 3454-2312 (5766) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $5 | +$1.25 | 47% 1977-2239 (4216) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 8.3¢ | $3.16 | — | -$3.16 | 32% 950-1996 (2946) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $3.6 | — | -$3.6 | 44% 1903-2453 (4356) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 16.3¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 52% 2466-2274 (4740) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $1.86 | $6 | +$4.14 | 42% 1466-2059 (3525) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 46% 1358-1593 (2951) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 38% 1297-2123 (3420) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $9.5 | — | -$9.5 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
63%
406-243 (649)
Invested
$510.55
Value
—
PnL
-$502.73
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Invested
$56.52
Value
$69.77
PnL
+$13.25
Record
50%
2066-2059 (4125)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.36
Value
$69.61
PnL
+$6.24
Record
54%
2156-1847 (4003)
Invested
$21.75
Value
$43.89
PnL
+$22.14
Record
46%
2546-3015 (5561)
Invested
$40.06
Value
—
PnL
-$40.06
Record
51%
896-852 (1748)
Invested
$30.98
Value
—
PnL
-$30.98
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Invested
$17.48
Value
—
PnL
-$17.48
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$17.96
PnL
+$0.46
Record
50%
1753-1753 (3506)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.52
Value
$12
PnL
+$3.48
Record
48%
1918-2109 (4027)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$16.57
PnL
+$11.6
Record
38%
581-947 (1528)
Invested
$10.75
Value
—
PnL
-$10.75
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$6.42
Value
$7.93
PnL
+$1.51
Record
60%
3454-2312 (5766)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.25
Record
47%
1977-2239 (4216)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$3.16
Value
—
PnL
-$3.16
Record
32%
950-1996 (2946)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
-$3.6
Record
44%
1903-2453 (4356)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
52%
2466-2274 (4740)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$6
PnL
+$4.14
Record
42%
1466-2059 (3525)
Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
46%
1358-1593 (2951)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
38%
1297-2123 (3420)
Invested
$9.5
Value
—
PnL
-$9.5
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Up — $69.61
suntori
Up — $43.89
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $17.96
ohioism
Up — $12