Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 76%
5 arb excluded
$3.3K
-$67.09
Smart Money Signal
13 of 17 top traders (76%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$14.35 | 63% 406-243 (649) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $636.35 | $1.3K | +$677.39 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $631.4 | — | -$663.04 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $782.62 | $705.56 | -$77.07 | 50% 2066-2059 (4125) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65¢ | $458.53 | $705.56 | +$247.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.8¢ | $324.09 | — | -$324.09 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $521.17 | $478.74 | -$3.84 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $240.37 | $478.74 | +$244.92 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.2¢ | $245.61 | — | -$248.75 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $153.42 | $130.9 | -$22.52 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.6¢ | $88.49 | $130.9 | +$42.41 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.6¢ | $64.94 | — | -$64.94 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 63.2¢ | $151.48 | $129.65 | -$21.83 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 64.3¢ | $103.12 | $115.55 | +$12.5 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 67.9¢ | $113.38 | $105.45 | -$7.93 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $86.27 | $101.1 | +$14.83 | 50% 1753-1753 (3506) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $83.73 | $76.74 | -$6.99 | 54% 2156-1847 (4003) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.4¢ | $52.46 | $76.74 | +$24.28 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.8¢ | $31.27 | — | -$31.27 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $77.22 | $78 | +$0.78 | 98% 3348-72 (3420) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $41.05 | $50 | +$8.95 | 71% 1464-597 (2061) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $32.11 | $30.33 | -$1.78 | 44% 1903-2453 (4356) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $39.75 | — | -$36.21 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $27.43 | $25.19 | -$2.24 | 46% 1358-1593 (2951) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $28.41 | — | -$28.41 | 52% 2466-2274 (4740) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $18 | $15.75 | -$2.25 | 47% 1944-2175 (4119) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $12.05 | $20 | +$7.95 | 48% 1918-2109 (4027) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.5¢ | $12.33 | — | -$12.33 | 47% 1977-2239 (4216) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $3.42 | $6 | +$2.58 | 42% 1466-2059 (3525) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $3.65 | $5 | +$1.35 | 60% 3454-2312 (5766) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $3.3 | — | -$3.3 | 38% 1297-2123 (3420) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $0.75 | $1 | +$0.25 | 38% 581-947 (1528) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$14.35
Record
63%
406-243 (649)
Both legs:
Invested
$782.62
Value
$705.56
PnL
-$77.07
Record
50%
2066-2059 (4125)
Both legs:
Invested
$521.17
Value
$478.74
PnL
-$3.84
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.42
Value
$130.9
PnL
-$22.52
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.48
Value
$129.65
PnL
-$21.83
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$103.12
Value
$115.55
PnL
+$12.5
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
Invested
$113.38
Value
$105.45
PnL
-$7.93
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
Invested
$86.27
Value
$101.1
PnL
+$14.83
Record
50%
1753-1753 (3506)
Invested
$83.73
Value
$76.74
PnL
-$6.99
Record
54%
2156-1847 (4003)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.22
Value
$78
PnL
+$0.78
Record
98%
3348-72 (3420)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$41.05
Value
$50
PnL
+$8.95
Record
71%
1464-597 (2061)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$32.11
Value
$30.33
PnL
-$1.78
Record
44%
1903-2453 (4356)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$39.75
Value
—
PnL
-$36.21
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
Invested
$27.43
Value
$25.19
PnL
-$2.24
Record
46%
1358-1593 (2951)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$28.41
Value
—
PnL
-$28.41
Record
52%
2466-2274 (4740)
Invested
$18
Value
$15.75
PnL
-$2.25
Record
47%
1944-2175 (4119)
ohioism<$100Invested
$12.05
Value
$20
PnL
+$7.95
Record
48%
1918-2109 (4027)
Invested
$12.33
Value
—
PnL
-$12.33
Record
47%
1977-2239 (4216)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.58
Record
42%
1466-2059 (3525)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.35
Record
60%
3454-2312 (5766)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
-$3.3
Record
38%
1297-2123 (3420)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.25
Record
38%
581-947 (1528)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $129.65
soswald1
Down — $115.55
blue.birds
Down — $105.45
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $101.1
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $78