Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$914.35
Smart Money Signal
12 of 23 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 38.8¢ | $675.31 | $1.4K | +$677.67 | 50% 2066-2059 (4125) |
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.2K | 63% 406-243 (649) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $536.18 | $494.8 | +$5.13 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $246.56 | $494.8 | +$251.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.8¢ | $249.19 | — | -$246.7 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 84.6¢ | $108.33 | $99 | -$9.33 | 52% 2043-1911 (3954) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 33.8¢ | $30.49 | $85 | +$54.51 | 44% 1903-2453 (4356) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50.9¢ | $134.85 | — | -$134.85 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $97.79 | — | -$71.49 | 50% 4218-4300 (8518) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $43.8 | — | -$43.8 | 50% 1753-1753 (3506) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 34.9¢ | $23.75 | $38.23 | +$14.48 | 47% 1944-2175 (4119) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 44.6¢ | $33.45 | $75 | +$41.55 | 48% 1139-1227 (2366) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.2¢ | $68.89 | — | -$28.97 | 54% 2156-1847 (4003) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $58.2 | — | -$36 | 52% 4851-4544 (9395) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 53.2¢ | $13.86 | $26.06 | +$12.2 | 48% 1918-2109 (4027) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 62.4¢ | $27.36 | — | -$27.36 | 38% 581-947 (1528) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 80.3¢ | $30.51 | $17.67 | -$10.91 | 38% 1297-2123 (3420) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $15.32 | $15.47 | +$0.15 | 98% 3348-72 (3420) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 47.6¢ | $12.51 | $17.59 | +$5.08 | 46% 1358-1593 (2951) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $17.18 | $14.55 | +$1.95 | 50% 1286-1280 (2566) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $11.6 | — | -$11.6 | 60% 3454-2312 (5766) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $8.04 | $16 | +$7.96 | 58% 4921-3591 (8512) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 47% 1977-2239 (4216) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Downavg 68.6¢ | $140.33 | — | -$140.33 | 42% 1466-2059 (3525) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.5¢ | $1.74 | — | -$1.74 | 52% 2466-2274 (4740) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 56¢ | $189.03 | — | -$39.04 | 49% 1276-1302 (2578) |
Invested
$675.31
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$677.67
Record
50%
2066-2059 (4125)
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
63%
406-243 (649)
Invested
$536.18
Value
$494.8
PnL
+$5.13
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$108.33
Value
$99
PnL
-$9.33
Record
52%
2043-1911 (3954)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$30.49
Value
$85
PnL
+$54.51
Record
44%
1903-2453 (4356)
Invested
$134.85
Value
—
PnL
-$134.85
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
Invested
$97.79
Value
—
PnL
-$71.49
Record
50%
4218-4300 (8518)
Invested
$43.8
Value
—
PnL
-$43.8
Record
50%
1753-1753 (3506)
Invested
$23.75
Value
$38.23
PnL
+$14.48
Record
47%
1944-2175 (4119)
Invested
$33.45
Value
$75
PnL
+$41.55
Record
48%
1139-1227 (2366)
Invested
$68.89
Value
—
PnL
-$28.97
Record
54%
2156-1847 (4003)
Invested
$58.2
Value
—
PnL
-$36
Record
52%
4851-4544 (9395)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.86
Value
$26.06
PnL
+$12.2
Record
48%
1918-2109 (4027)
Invested
$27.36
Value
—
PnL
-$27.36
Record
38%
581-947 (1528)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$30.51
Value
$17.67
PnL
-$10.91
Record
38%
1297-2123 (3420)
Invested
$15.32
Value
$15.47
PnL
+$0.15
Record
98%
3348-72 (3420)
Invested
$12.51
Value
$17.59
PnL
+$5.08
Record
46%
1358-1593 (2951)
Invested
$17.18
Value
$14.55
PnL
+$1.95
Record
50%
1286-1280 (2566)
Invested
$11.6
Value
—
PnL
-$11.6
Record
60%
3454-2312 (5766)
Invested
$8.04
Value
$16
PnL
+$7.96
Record
58%
4921-3591 (8512)
Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
47%
1977-2239 (4216)
Invested
$140.33
Value
—
PnL
-$140.33
Record
42%
1466-2059 (3525)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
—
PnL
-$1.74
Record
52%
2466-2274 (4740)
Invested
$189.03
Value
—
PnL
-$39.04
Record
49%
1276-1302 (2578)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.4K
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $99
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $85
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $38.23
PBot-5
Up — $75