Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 35%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$38.59

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 17 top traders (35%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$611.67

Total Shares612

Combined PnL+$130.35

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares431

Combined PnL-$168.95

Down — 35%Up — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$3.87	63% 406-243 (649)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$647.03	—	-$676.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$636.24	$1.3K	+$680.43
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$750	$598.76	-$6.98	51% 3113-3000 (6113)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$343.92	—	-$342.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$299.38	$598.76	+$335.37
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$507.17	$497.33	+$0.59	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$247.25	—	-$247.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$249.89	$497.33	+$248.04
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$201.15	$200.2	+$2.47	50% 2066-2059 (4125)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.8¢	$106.03	—	-$105.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.8¢	$91.77	$200.2	+$108.43
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 77¢	$152.42	$140	-$12.42	52% 4851-4544 (9395)
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.8¢	$44.62	—	-$44.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 77¢	$107.8	$140	+$32.2
SU suntori	Downavg 53.7¢	$157.84	$217.73	+$124.97	46% 2546-3015 (5561)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.6¢	$194.33	$197	+$2.67	98% 3348-72 (3420)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$64.03	$55.88	-$8.15	46% 1358-1593 (2951)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.7¢	$25.2	—	-$25.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.5¢	$38.83	$55.88	+$17.05
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 19.2¢	$22.16	—	-$22.16	44% 1903-2453 (4356)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$70.61	—	-$65.98	50% 4218-4300 (8518)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 98.9¢	$105.76	$106.94	+$1.18	50% 1753-1753 (3506)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 64.4¢	$125.67	$35	-$6.07	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 17.3¢	$10.08	—	-$10.08	38% 581-947 (1528)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$20.43	—	-$20.43	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 13.3¢	$5.03	—	-$5.03	38% 1272-2117 (3389)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$12.63	—	-$12.63	54% 2156-1847 (4003)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 45.8¢	$12.82	—	-$12.82	58% 4921-3591 (8512)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$5.5	—	-$5.5	52% 2466-2274 (4740)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 84.6¢	$29.6	$35	+$5.4	71% 1464-597 (2061)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$28.84	—	-$8.07	60% 3454-2312 (5766)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 89¢	$17.8	$20	+$2.2	48% 1918-2109 (4027)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$4.7	—	-$4.7	47% 1944-2175 (4119)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$1.56	—	-$1.56	38% 1297-2123 (3420)