Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Down 53%
$715.4
$-2.5K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 17 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 62% 397-239 (636) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $754.1 | — | -$697.04 | 51% 3088-2980 (6068) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.2¢ | $522.4 | — | -$498.11 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 32.2¢ | $123.24 | $382.55 | +$259.32 | 50% 2065-2056 (4121) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 97¢ | $134.05 | $113 | -$21.05 | 50% 1731-1732 (3463) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $108.66 | $109.76 | +$1.1 | 98% 3320-70 (3390) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 54.1¢ | $74.56 | — | -$74.56 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 53.2¢ | $89 | — | -$89 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $41.78 | — | -$41.78 | 46% 1344-1580 (2924) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $41.25 | — | -$41.25 | 54% 2138-1828 (3966) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 28.1¢ | $15.31 | $35.3 | +$19.99 | 52% 2446-2260 (4706) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 84.1¢ | $72.1 | $34.95 | -$13.39 | 52% 2019-1897 (3916) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $6.47 | $20.84 | +$14.37 | 47% 1965-2218 (4183) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $5 | +$3.35 | 48% 1903-2089 (3992) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $1.4 | $14 | +$12.6 | 38% 1284-2104 (3388) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 5.7¢ | $2.67 | — | -$2.67 | 38% 580-937 (1517) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 44% 1886-2437 (4323) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
62%
397-239 (636)
Invested
$754.1
Value
—
PnL
-$697.04
Record
51%
3088-2980 (6068)
Invested
$522.4
Value
—
PnL
-$498.11
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Invested
$123.24
Value
$382.55
PnL
+$259.32
Record
50%
2065-2056 (4121)
Invested
$134.05
Value
$113
PnL
-$21.05
Record
50%
1731-1732 (3463)
Invested
$108.66
Value
$109.76
PnL
+$1.1
Record
98%
3320-70 (3390)
Invested
$74.56
Value
—
PnL
-$74.56
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
Invested
$89
Value
—
PnL
-$89
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
Invested
$41.78
Value
—
PnL
-$41.78
Record
46%
1344-1580 (2924)
Invested
$41.25
Value
—
PnL
-$41.25
Record
54%
2138-1828 (3966)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$15.31
Value
$35.3
PnL
+$19.99
Record
52%
2446-2260 (4706)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$72.1
Value
$34.95
PnL
-$13.39
Record
52%
2019-1897 (3916)
Invested
$6.47
Value
$20.84
PnL
+$14.37
Record
47%
1965-2218 (4183)
ohioism<$100Invested
$1.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.35
Record
48%
1903-2089 (3992)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
$14
PnL
+$12.6
Record
38%
1284-2104 (3388)
Invested
$2.67
Value
—
PnL
-$2.67
Record
38%
580-937 (1517)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
44%
1886-2437 (4323)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $382.55
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $113
hoodquant
Up — $109.76
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0
rabadabadoo
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0