Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$5.64

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 100¢

+56% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$771.12

Total Shares799

Combined PnL-$3.51

Down4 traders

Total Value$12.28

Total Shares246

Combined PnL-$2.13

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$1.23	62% 397-239 (636)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$750	$757.5	+$7.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$746.03	$738.57	-$8.73
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$750	$725.52	-$0.87	51% 3088-2980 (6068)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$359	$549.27	+$197.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$375	$176.25	-$198.75
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$499.28	+$0.52	55% 3173-2646 (5819)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$174.24	$175.91	+$1.67	98% 3320-70 (3390)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$38.4	$38.7	+$0.3	50% 4199-4276 (8475)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$35	$28.28	-$6.72	50% 1731-1732 (3463)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$12.03	$12	-$0.03	46% 1344-1580 (2924)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 12.5¢	$7.34	$9.07	+$1.73	52% 4832-4520 (9352)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 95¢	$7.47	$7.12	-$0.35	46% 2530-3008 (5538)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	52% 2019-1897 (3916)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 68¢	$3.79	$4.83	+$1.05	54% 2138-1828 (3966)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.48	+$0.58	51% 885-846 (1731)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1.3¢	$1.82	$0.71	-$1.11	32% 943-1979 (2922)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 8.4¢	$3.35	$0.02	-$3.33	38% 1284-2104 (3388)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$1.23

Record

62%

397-239 (636)

Both legs:

Invested

$750

Value

$725.52

PnL

-$0.87

Record

51%

3088-2980 (6068)

Both legs:

Up$35950¢+$197.88

Down$37550¢-$198.75

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$499.28

PnL

+$0.52

Record

55%

3173-2646 (5819)

hoodquant

Invested

$174.24

Value

$175.91

PnL

+$1.67

Record

98%

3320-70 (3390)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$38.4

Value

$38.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

4199-4276 (8475)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$35

Value

$28.28

PnL

-$6.72

Record

50%

1731-1732 (3463)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$12.03

Value

$12

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

1344-1580 (2924)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.34

Value

$9.07

PnL

+$1.73

Record

52%

4832-4520 (9352)

suntori<$100

Invested

$7.47

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$0.35

Record

46%

2530-3008 (5538)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

2019-1897 (3916)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$1.05

Record

54%

2138-1828 (3966)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.58

Record

51%

885-846 (1731)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$1.11

Record

32%

943-1979 (2922)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.35

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.33

Record

38%

1284-2104 (3388)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.