Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Down 32%
$1.1K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 20 top traders (30%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 62% 397-239 (636) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $520.68 | $505.02 | -$1.34 | 55% 3173-2646 (5819) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 38.3¢ | $36.13 | $94.38 | +$58.25 | 50% 4199-4276 (8475) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.1¢ | $89.34 | $91.09 | +$1.75 | 98% 3320-70 (3390) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 95.2¢ | $77.21 | $80.85 | +$3.63 | 32% 943-1979 (2922) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 83.9¢ | $71.24 | $74 | +$2.76 | 52% 4832-4520 (9352) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 67.1¢ | $62.8 | $70.97 | +$11.47 | 51% 3088-2980 (6068) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 93.1¢ | $41.26 | $39.08 | -$2.18 | 54% 2138-1828 (3966) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $17.3 | $35 | +$17.7 | 47% 1924-2156 (4080) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 59.7¢ | $11.97 | $20.05 | +$8.08 | 46% 1344-1580 (2924) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $29.95 | $15 | -$1.15 | 52% 2019-1897 (3916) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $8.34 | $13.24 | +$4.9 | 60% 3418-2292 (5710) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.7¢ | $7.87 | — | -$7.87 | 50% 2065-2056 (4121) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 32.5¢ | $3.9 | $12 | +$8.1 | 41% 1439-2039 (3478) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $2.55 | $5.1 | +$2.55 | 38% 1284-2104 (3388) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.1¢ | $5.05 | — | -$5.05 | 44% 1886-2437 (4323) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.5¢ | $3.55 | — | -$3.55 | 52% 2446-2260 (4706) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.1¢ | $3.41 | — | -$3.41 | 48% 1903-2089 (3992) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $2.63 | — | -$2.63 | 38% 580-937 (1517) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $1.4 | $0.01 | +$0.5 | 46% 2530-3008 (5538) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
62%
397-239 (636)
Invested
$520.68
Value
$505.02
PnL
-$1.34
Record
55%
3173-2646 (5819)
Invested
$36.13
Value
$94.38
PnL
+$58.25
Record
50%
4199-4276 (8475)
Invested
$89.34
Value
$91.09
PnL
+$1.75
Record
98%
3320-70 (3390)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$77.21
Value
$80.85
PnL
+$3.63
Record
32%
943-1979 (2922)
Invested
$71.24
Value
$74
PnL
+$2.76
Record
52%
4832-4520 (9352)
Invested
$62.8
Value
$70.97
PnL
+$11.47
Record
51%
3088-2980 (6068)
Invested
$41.26
Value
$39.08
PnL
-$2.18
Record
54%
2138-1828 (3966)
Invested
$17.3
Value
$35
PnL
+$17.7
Record
47%
1924-2156 (4080)
Invested
$11.97
Value
$20.05
PnL
+$8.08
Record
46%
1344-1580 (2924)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$29.95
Value
$15
PnL
-$1.15
Record
52%
2019-1897 (3916)
Invested
$8.34
Value
$13.24
PnL
+$4.9
Record
60%
3418-2292 (5710)
Invested
$7.87
Value
—
PnL
-$7.87
Record
50%
2065-2056 (4121)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$12
PnL
+$8.1
Record
41%
1439-2039 (3478)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$2.55
Record
38%
1284-2104 (3388)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$5.05
Value
—
PnL
-$5.05
Record
44%
1886-2437 (4323)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
—
PnL
-$3.55
Record
52%
2446-2260 (4706)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.41
Value
—
PnL
-$3.41
Record
48%
1903-2089 (3992)
Invested
$2.63
Value
—
PnL
-$2.63
Record
38%
580-937 (1517)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.5
Record
46%
2530-3008 (5538)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $505.02
asdcaxz
Up — $94.38
hoodquant
Up — $91.09
pspspsps5
Up — $80.85
blue.birds
Up — $74
soswald1
Up — $70.97
ply-pm2
Up — $39.08
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $35
rabadabadoo
Up — $20.05