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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

17

Up 53%

Total Value

$726.68

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 17 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,300
Combined PnL$-2.2K
Down8 traders
Total Value$726.68
Total Shares727
Combined PnL+$9.25
Up — 53%Down — 47%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR
Up

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

62%

397-239 (636)

SO
soswald1CTR
Up

Invested

$750

Value

—

PnL

-$719.9

Record

51%

3088-2980 (6068)

BY
ByteBadger92
Down

Invested

$509.12

Value

$507.97

PnL

+$0.86

Record

55%

3173-2646 (5819)

OhioRiskManagement<$100
Down

Invested

$67.35

Value

$65.91

PnL

-$1.44

Record

38%

1284-2104 (3388)

AS
asdcaxz<$100
Down

Invested

$58.64

Value

$56.85

PnL

-$1.79

Record

50%

4199-4276 (8475)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$32.91

Value

$33.24

PnL

+$0.33

Record

98%

3320-70 (3390)

UN
uninformedfloww<$100
Down

Invested

$18.7

Value

$22

PnL

+$3.3

Record

50%

2065-2056 (4121)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Down

Invested

$19.37

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.63

Record

54%

2138-1828 (3966)

BL
blue.birds<$100
Down

Invested

$23.29

Value

$15

PnL

+$5.36

Record

52%

4832-4520 (9352)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100
Down

Invested

$3.71

Value

$5.71

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

1731-1732 (3463)

RA
rabadabadooCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.07

Value

—

PnL

-$4.07

Record

46%

1344-1580 (2924)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.75

Value

—

PnL

-$1.75

Record

41%

1439-2039 (3478)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.61

Value

—

PnL

-$1.61

Record

52%

2446-2260 (4706)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.57

Value

—

PnL

-$0.57

Record

47%

1965-2218 (4183)

AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.34

Value

—

PnL

-$0.34

Record

60%

3418-2292 (5710)

pspspsps5CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.22

Value

—

PnL

-$0.22

Record

32%

943-1979 (2922)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.84

Value

—

PnL

-$5.84

Record

44%

1886-2437 (4323)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xaef88675...96cbb4
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1794647700

Traders in this Market

0X

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.4K
SO

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$719.9
BY

ByteBadger92

Down — $507.97

+$0.86

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $65.91

-$1.44
AS

asdcaxz

Down — $56.85

-$1.79
HO

hoodquant

Down — $33.24

+$0.33
UN

uninformedfloww

Down — $22

+$3.3
PL

ply-pm2

Down — $20

+$0.63
BL

blue.birds

Down — $15

+$5.36
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $5.71

+$2
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