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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

15

Up 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$110.45

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,921

Combined PnL+$93.65

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,311

Combined PnL-$204.1

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$0.83	62% 397-239 (636)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$750	$706.63	-$2.47	51% 3088-2980 (6068)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$353.31	$706.63	+$349.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$345.47	—	-$352.23
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$494.74	-$1.16	55% 3173-2646 (5819)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$247.37	$494.74	+$248.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$140.58	$142	+$1.42	98% 3320-70 (3390)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 89.5¢	$127.08	$141.99	+$14.92	50% 1731-1732 (3463)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$54.85	$75	+$20.15	52% 2019-1897 (3916)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 42.9¢	$43.91	$66.74	+$22.84	52% 4832-4520 (9352)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 33.8¢	$20.45	—	-$20.45	54% 2138-1828 (3966)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 48.9¢	$19.55	$40	+$20.45	47% 1924-2156 (4080)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 48.8¢	$126.43	—	-$121.25	50% 2065-2056 (4121)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 39.6¢	$10.68	—	-$10.68	46% 1344-1580 (2924)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 45¢	$6.75	$15	+$8.25	47% 1965-2218 (4183)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 42¢	$4.2	$10	+$5.8	48% 1903-2089 (3992)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 87¢	$4.35	$5	+$0.65	52% 2446-2260 (4706)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$9.34	—	-$9.34	46% 2530-3008 (5538)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.9¢	$0.23	—	-$0.23	51% 1285-1221 (2506)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$42.14	—	-$42.14	50% 4199-4276 (8475)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0.83

Record

62%

397-239 (636)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$750

Value

$706.63

PnL

-$2.47

Record

51%

3088-2980 (6068)

Both legs:

Up$353.3150¢+$349.77

Down$345.4750¢-$352.23

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$494.74

PnL

-$1.16

Record

55%

3173-2646 (5819)

Both legs:

Up$247.3750¢+$248.84

Down$25050¢-$250

Invested

$140.58

Value

$142

PnL

+$1.42

Record

98%

3320-70 (3390)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$127.08

Value

$141.99

PnL

+$14.92

Record

50%

1731-1732 (3463)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$54.85

Value

$75

PnL

+$20.15

Record

52%

2019-1897 (3916)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$43.91

Value

$66.74

PnL

+$22.84

Record

52%

4832-4520 (9352)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$20.45

Value

—

PnL

-$20.45

Record

54%

2138-1828 (3966)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$19.55

Value

$40

PnL

+$20.45

Record

47%

1924-2156 (4080)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$126.43

Value

—

PnL

-$121.25

Record

50%

2065-2056 (4121)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$10.68

Value

—

PnL

-$10.68

Record

46%

1344-1580 (2924)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$6.75

Value

$15

PnL

+$8.25

Record

47%

1965-2218 (4183)

Invested

$4.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.8

Record

48%

1903-2089 (3992)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

2446-2260 (4706)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$9.34

Value

—

PnL

-$9.34

Record

46%

2530-3008 (5538)

Invested

$0.23

Value

—

PnL

-$0.23

Record

51%

1285-1221 (2506)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$42.14

Value

—

PnL

-$42.14

Record

50%

4199-4276 (8475)

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x266e8964...017e90

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794647100

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $1.4K

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $142

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $141.99

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $75

blue.birds

Up — $66.74

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $40

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

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